Super Bowl 2021 · February 13, 2022
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Rams vs Bengals, Super Bowl 2021: who deserved to win?
The Rams beat the Bengals 23–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Rams win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 23 points of win probability to the Rams.
Before kickoff the Rams were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:43 left): the Bengals were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 17 points of win probability to the Rams.
Final
 Los Angeles Rams | 23 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +51 Rams lucky · −51 Bengals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 5, Bengals win 5.
- 1 LA 34 CIN 9
- 2 LA 38 CIN 24
- 3 LA 38 CIN 28
- 4 LA 33 CIN 27
- 5 LA 24 CIN 22
- 6 LA 28 CIN 30
- 7 LA 21 CIN 27
- 8 LA 8 CIN 20
- 9 LA 30 CIN 46
- 10 LA 19 CIN 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 49% of them, Bengals 51%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 13.1% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 14.4% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 19.6% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 20.4% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 15.0% |
| Bengals by 17+ | 12.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. McPherson, 29 yds made · 98% expected
- E. McPherson, 38 yds made · 92% expected
- M. Gay, 41 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Rams 2 for 10 yards, Bengals 4 for 31 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:00 | Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 3:08 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CIN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:10 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bengals, 10 yards | +2% LA +0.9 pts |
| Q4 11:55 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals, 14 yards | +4% LA +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:47 | Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Logan Wilson), 4 yards | +10% LA +3.0 pts |
| Q4 1:38 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Eli Apple), 3 yards | +4% LA +0.5 pts |
Rams penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Bengals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:46 | The Rams converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +11% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 14:55 | The Rams converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +11% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 3:50 | The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +8% LA | LA: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 11:55 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Bengals, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +11% LA | CIN: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 5:00 | The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +8% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 1:47 | Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Logan Wilson), 4 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1565 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 | +10% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:48 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +12% LA | CIN: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:43 | The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +17% LA | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Larry Ogunjobi (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Joe Bachie (CIN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Jordan Fuller (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Joseph Noteboom (LA T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 5% · Bengals 95%
- Final margin
- Rams by 3
- Luck in points
- 9.3 for the Rams
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bengals by 6.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 49% · Bengals 51% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Super Bowl 2021 games · 
Rams · 
Bengals