luckadjusted

2026 NFL season · after Week 3

Regression candidates, 2026

Due to cool off: the Vikings, the Eagles and the Raiders, whose records ran furthest ahead of their coin flips. Due to bounce back: the Buccaneers, the Bears and the Ravens.

The measure is coin-flip wins: every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call re-rolled, everything else kept. A record far above it was built on bounces. It’s the best of our numbers at predicting the rest of a season: from weeks 1–9 to weeks 10–18 it correlates at 0.44 with the later win share, against 0.38 for the record itself (224 team-seasons). One-score records barely carry over at all: 0.12 from one season to the next. Methodology

Due to cool off

Won more than their coin flips, 2026 so far.

TeamRecordCoin-flip winsGapReplay winsOne-score
Vikings 2–00.6 +1.41.01–0
Eagles 2–01.2 +0.81.12–0
Raiders 2–01.4 +0.61.10–0
Bills 2–01.4 +0.61.91–0
Bengals 2–01.4 +0.61.41–0
Giants 1–10.5 +0.50.21–0
Broncos 1–10.5 +0.50.71–0
Browns 1–10.7 +0.30.41–0

Due to bounce back

Won fewer than their coin flips, 2026 so far.

TeamRecordCoin-flip winsGapReplay winsOne-score
Buccaneers 0–20.8 −0.80.60–2
Bears 1–11.8 −0.81.20–1
Ravens 1–11.6 −0.61.70–1
Texans 0–20.5 −0.50.60–1
Dolphins 0–20.5 −0.50.60–0
Cowboys 1–11.5 −0.51.60–1
Titans 0–20.5 −0.50.50–1
Jaguars 1–11.5 −0.51.40–1

Other seasons: 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019

2026 luck rankings · One-score records · Expected wins · Luckiest teams since 2019