2019 NFL season · final
Regression candidates for 2020
Due to fall back in 2020: the Seahawks, the Packers and the Texans, whose records ran furthest ahead of their coin flips in 2019. Due to bounce back: the Bengals, the Cowboys and the Buccaneers.
The measure is coin-flip wins: every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call re-rolled, everything else kept. A record far above it was built on bounces. It’s the best of our numbers at predicting the rest of a season: from weeks 1–9 to weeks 10–18 it correlates at 0.44 with the later win share, against 0.38 for the record itself (224 team-seasons). One-score records barely carry over at all: 0.12 from one season to the next. Methodology
Due to fall back
Won more than their coin flips, 2019.
| Team | Record | Coin-flip wins | Gap | Replay wins | One-score | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seahawks | 11–5 | 7.7 | +3.3 | 7.1 | 10–2 | 12–4 |
 Packers | 13–3 | 10.1 | +2.9 | 8.0 | 8–1 | 13–3 |
 Texans | 10–6 | 7.2 | +2.8 | 8.7 | 8–3 | 4–12 |
 Steelers | 8–8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | 6.6 | 6–5 | 12–4 |
 Bears | 8–8 | 6.3 | +1.7 | 4.0 | 6–5 | 8–8 |
 49ers | 13–3 | 11.6 | +1.4 | 11.7 | 5–3 | 6–10 |
 Ravens | 14–2 | 12.9 | +1.1 | 13.8 | 5–1 | 11–5 |
 Dolphins | 5–11 | 3.9 | +1.1 | 3.7 | 5–2 | 10–6 |
Due to bounce back
Won fewer than their coin flips, 2019.
| Team | Record | Coin-flip wins | Gap | Replay wins | One-score | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bengals | 2–14 | 4.5 | −2.5 | 4.4 | 0–8 | 4–11–1 |
 Cowboys | 8–8 | 9.9 | −1.9 | 13.5 | 1–6 | 6–10 |
 Buccaneers | 7–9 | 8.8 | −1.8 | 10.6 | 3–6 | 11–5 |
 Lions | 3–12–1 | 5.3 | −1.8 | 6.6 | 3–8–1 | 5–11 |
 Chargers | 5–11 | 6.8 | −1.8 | 10.8 | 2–9 | 7–9 |
 Vikings | 10–6 | 11.6 | −1.6 | 9.5 | 2–4 | 7–9 |
 Raiders | 7–9 | 8.3 | −1.3 | 8.1 | 7–3 | 8–8 |
 Cardinals | 5–10–1 | 6.8 | −1.3 | 6.7 | 3–5–1 | 8–8 |
Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020
2019 luck rankings · One-score records · Expected wins · Luckiest teams since 2019