luckadjusted

2019 season · final

Indianapolis Colts, 2019: game by game

The Colts went 7–9 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.4 wins. Luck cost them 2.4: the 5th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–6.

Every game

How often the Colts win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Chargers L 24–30 43% −43
Week 2 @ Titans W 19–17 80% +20
Week 3 vs Falcons W 27–24 69% +31
Week 4 vs Raiders L 24–31 45% −45
Week 5 @ Chiefs W 19–13 83% +17
Week 7 vs Texans W 30–23 12% +88
Week 8 vs Broncos W 15–13 83% +17
Week 9 @ Steelers L 24–26 75% −75
Week 10 vs Dolphins L 12–16 92% −92
Week 11 vs Jaguars W 33–13 92% +8
Week 12 @ Texans L 17–20 46% −46
Week 13 vs Titans L 17–31 76% −76
Week 14 @ Buccaneers L 35–38 6% −6
Week 15 @ Saints L 7–34 8% −8
Week 16 vs Panthers W 38–6 93% +7
Week 17 @ Jaguars L 20–38 41% −41

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Colts’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Judgment calls+0.27+24.3
3rd & 4th downs+0.16−4.3
Injuries−0.07−2.7
Fumble bounces−0.33−9.4
Kicks−1.63−32.1