luckadjusted

Week 16 2019 · December 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Colts, Week 16 2019: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Panthers 38–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 71% favorites.

Final

Carolina Panthers 6
Indianapolis Colts 38

December 22, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −7.5

Luck index +7 Colts about even · −7 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Colts win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 9 IND 3
  2. 2 CAR 7 IND 10
  3. 3 CAR 14 IND 20
  4. 4 CAR 17 IND 26
  5. 5 CAR 10 IND 20
  6. 6 CAR 7 IND 20
  7. 7 CAR 14 IND 30
  8. 8 CAR 18 IND 37
  9. 9 CAR 0 IND 23
  10. 10 CAR 10 IND 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 7% of them, Colts 93%. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.1%
Panthers by 9–161.3%
Panthers by 1–85.2%
Level after regulation0.4%
Colts by 1–815.3%
Colts by 9–1621.9%
Colts by 17+55.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 32, without the luck Colts by 29.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Slye, 50 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 6 for 46 yards, Colts 0 for 0 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:49 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Eric Reid), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +1.1 pts
Q1 6:53 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.6 pts
Q2 2:00 Illegal Contact on the Panthers (Ross Cockrell), 5 yards 0% IND +0.8 pts
Q3 13:26 Disqualification on the Panthers (Vernon Butler), 15 yards +1% IND +1.9 pts
Q4 12:22 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Gerald McCoy), 15 yards 0% IND +1.7 pts
Q4 4:05 Horse Collar Tackle on the Panthers (Tre Boston), 1 yard 0% IND +0.4 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:51 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +3% IND CAR: Punt
2 Q1 9:50 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +3% CAR IND: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:30 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +6% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:58 Return touchdown by the ColtsSpecial teams +6% IND IND: Opp touchdown
5 Q1 1:39 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +3% IND CAR: Field goal
6 Q2 12:21 The Panthers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +5% CAR CAR: Field goal
7 Q2 6:34 The Colts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +3% IND IND: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:45 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +3% CAR IND: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kenny Moore (IND CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Chester Rogers (IND WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Adam Vinatieri (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Denico Autry (IND DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Little (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dontari Poe (CAR NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Greg Van Roten (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Colts 100%

Final margin
Colts by 32
Luck in points
2.6 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 29.4
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 7% · Colts 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2019 games · Panthers · Colts

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