luckadjusted

Week 16 2019 · December 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Saints at Titans, Week 16 2019: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Titans 38–28 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Saints were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:26 left): the Saints were stopped on 4th & 7, worth 17 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

New Orleans Saints 38
Tennessee Titans 28

December 22, 2019 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Saints −3.5

Luck index +28 Saints lucky · −28 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 7, Titans win 3.

  1. 1 NO 40 TEN 8
  2. 2 NO 54 TEN 32
  3. 3 NO 42 TEN 24
  4. 4 NO 34 TEN 20
  5. 5 NO 31 TEN 21
  6. 6 NO 29 TEN 23
  7. 7 NO 25 TEN 23
  8. 8 NO 16 TEN 19
  9. 9 NO 30 TEN 39
  10. 10 NO 20 TEN 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 72% of them, Titans 28%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+29.2%
Saints by 9–1618.4%
Saints by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation3.0%
Titans by 1–813.2%
Titans by 9–168.6%
Titans by 17+6.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 10, without the luck Saints by 6.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Saints 11 for 70 yards, Titans 6 for 56 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:07 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Dwayne Washington), 10 yards +3% TEN +1.0 pts
Q1 7:18 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% TEN +1.9 pts
Q1 2:48 False Start on the Saints (Josh Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.7 pts
Q2 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Jayon Brown), 11 yards +3% NO +1.9 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.8 pts
Q2 14:56 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.7 pts
Q2 13:36 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% NO +2.1 pts
Q2 11:21 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Josh Hill), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% TEN +1.6 pts
Q2 9:33 Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints (David Onyemata), 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% TEN +1.1 pts
Q2 8:21 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.5 pts
Q2 7:33 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +3% TEN +0.9 pts
Q2 6:39 Illegal Formation on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.5 pts
Q2 2:23 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 8 yards +2% NO +0.7 pts
Q3 14:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Logan Ryan), 17 yards +5% NO +1.6 pts
Q3 12:34 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% NO +1.6 pts
Q4 14:25 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% TEN +2.0 pts
Q4 10:53 Delay of Game on the Saints, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN 0.0 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:10 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +6% NO TEN: Punt
2 Q3 12:34 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q3 10:25 The Saints converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +13% NO NO: Touchdown
4 Q3 4:36 The Titans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +12% TEN TEN: Touchdown
5 Q4 14:25 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 727 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +6% TEN TEN: Punt
6 Q4 4:30 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% TEN NO: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 4:26 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +17% TEN NO: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:23 The Titans fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% NO TEN: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Adoree' Jackson (TEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Malcolm Butler (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jeffery Simmons (TEN DT), out · 0.5 pts
  • Derrick Henry (TEN RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ryan Succop (TEN K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Larry Warford (NO G), out · 0.7 pts
  • Vonn Bell (NO SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Carr (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (NO DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kiko Alonso (NO LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 83% · Titans 17%

Final margin
Saints by 10
Luck in points
3.1 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 6.9
Replay with same day's form
Saints 72% · Titans 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2019 games · Saints · Titans

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