luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · December 21, 2019–December 23

Week 16 2019: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Texans beat the Buccaneers 23–20 in a game they win 8% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 16 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Cardinals 27–13 @ Seahawks 28% 93% Deserved
Raiders 24–17 @ Chargers 29% 42% Coin flip
Packers 23–10 @ Vikings 38% 75% Deserved
Jets 16–10 vs Steelers 41% 51% Coin flip
Eagles 17–9 vs Cowboys 44% 55% Coin flip
Dolphins 38–35 vs Bengals 46% 78% Deserved

Week 16 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Texans W 23–20 @ Buccaneers 8% +92
2 Raiders W 24–17 @ Chargers 42% +58
3 Jets W 16–10 vs Steelers 51% +49
4 Eagles W 17–9 vs Cowboys 55% +45
5 49ers W 34–31 vs Rams 57% +43
6 Saints W 38–28 @ Titans 72% +28
7 Packers W 23–10 @ Vikings 75% +25
8 Broncos W 27–17 vs Lions 76% +24
9 Patriots W 24–17 vs Bills 78% +22
10 Dolphins W 38–35 vs Bengals 78% +22
11 Giants W 41–35 @ Washington 84% +16
12 Ravens W 31–15 @ Browns 88% +12
13 Colts W 38–6 vs Panthers 93% +7
14 Cardinals W 27–13 @ Seahawks 93% +7
15 Falcons W 24–12 vs Jaguars 95% +5
16 Chiefs W 26–3 @ Bears 96% +4
17 Bears L 3–26 vs Chiefs 4% −4
18 Jaguars L 12–24 @ Falcons 5% −5
19 Seahawks L 13–27 vs Cardinals 7% −7
20 Panthers L 6–38 @ Colts 7% −7
21 Browns L 15–31 vs Ravens 12% −12
22 Washington L 35–41 vs Giants 16% −16
23 Bengals L 35–38 @ Dolphins 22% −22
24 Bills L 17–24 @ Patriots 22% −22
25 Lions L 17–27 @ Broncos 24% −24
26 Vikings L 10–23 vs Packers 25% −25
27 Titans L 28–38 vs Saints 28% −28
28 Rams L 31–34 @ 49ers 43% −43
29 Cowboys L 9–17 @ Eagles 45% −45
30 Steelers L 10–16 @ Jets 49% −49
31 Chargers L 17–24 vs Raiders 58% −58
32 Buccaneers L 20–23 vs Texans 92% −92