luckadjusted

2019 season · final

Detroit Lions, 2019: game by game

The Lions went 3–12–1 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.6 wins. Luck cost them 3.1: the 4th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–8–1.

Every game

How often the Lions win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Cardinals T 27–27 70% −20
Week 2 vs Chargers W 13–10 28% +72
Week 3 @ Eagles W 27–24 64% +36
Week 4 vs Chiefs L 30–34 18% −18
Week 6 @ Packers L 22–23 44% −44
Week 7 vs Vikings L 30–42 16% −16
Week 8 vs Giants W 31–26 50% +50
Week 9 @ Raiders L 24–31 60% −60
Week 10 @ Bears L 13–20 86% −86
Week 11 vs Cowboys L 27–35 7% −7
Week 12 @ Washington L 16–19 87% −87
Week 13 vs Bears L 20–24 34% −34
Week 14 @ Vikings L 7–20 13% −13
Week 15 vs Buccaneers L 17–38 4% −4
Week 16 @ Broncos L 17–27 24% −24
Week 17 vs Packers L 20–23 57% −57

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Lions’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Rest+0.05+2.2
Fumble bounces−0.08−3.1
3rd & 4th downs−0.19−4.9
Judgment calls−0.20−16.4
Injuries−0.71−32.7