luckadjusted

Week 14 2019 · December 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Lions at Vikings, Week 14 2019: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Lions 20–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 81% favorites.

Final

Detroit Lions 7
Minnesota Vikings 20

December 8, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −12

Luck index +13 Vikings about even · −13 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 1, Vikings win 9.

  1. 1 DET 27 MIN 21
  2. 2 DET 20 MIN 23
  3. 3 DET 24 MIN 29
  4. 4 DET 26 MIN 33
  5. 5 DET 34 MIN 44
  6. 6 DET 17 MIN 30
  7. 7 DET 21 MIN 38
  8. 8 DET 19 MIN 40
  9. 9 DET 14 MIN 40
  10. 10 DET 9 MIN 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 13% of them, Vikings 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+1.6%
Lions by 9–162.9%
Lions by 1–88.3%
Level after regulation1.5%
Vikings by 1–819.3%
Vikings by 9–1624.0%
Vikings by 17+42.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 13, without the luck Vikings by 6.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Bailey, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Prater, 45 yds missed · 84% expected
  • D. Bailey, 50 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 4 for 28 yards, Vikings 8 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:01 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Stephen Weatherly), 10 yards +1% DET +0.9 pts
Q1 8:16 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Darius Slay), 5 yards +2% MIN +0.8 pts
Q1 6:04 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Lions (Jahlani Tavai), 8 yards +3% MIN +1.3 pts
Q1 3:49 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Everson Griffen), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.1 pts
Q1 3:30 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 5 yards +2% DET +1.7 pts
Q1 1:12 Defensive Holding on the Lions, 5 yards +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 4:48 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +1.1 pts
Q2 3:17 Illegal Use of Hands on the Vikings (Linval Joseph), 5 yards +2% DET +0.8 pts
Q2 2:25 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Anthony Barr), 5 yards +4% DET +1.2 pts
Q3 13:43 False Start on the Vikings (Ameer Abdullah), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.4 pts
Q3 9:09 Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Kenny Golladay), 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% MIN +2.6 pts
Q3 4:59 Roughing the Passer on the Vikings (Stephen Weatherly), 15 yards +2% DET +1.8 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:53 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% MIN DET: Punt
2 Q1 12:05 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +3% DET MIN: Punt
3 Q1 2:33 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% MIN DET: Punt
4 Q2 10:44 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +4% MIN DET: Punt
5 Q2 2:25 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Anthony Barr), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 792 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +4% DET DET: Missed field goal
6 Q2 1:29 The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% DET DET: Missed field goal
7 Q2 1:16 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +7% MIN DET: Missed field goal
8 Q2 1:10 M. Prater missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him, 9 of 11 from 45+ before +7% MIN DET: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matthew Stafford (DET QB), out, replaced by d.blough · 5.3 pts
  • T.J. Hockenson (DET TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Rashaan Melvin (DET CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Da'Shawn Hand (DET DE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 2% · Vikings 98%

Final margin
Vikings by 13
Luck in points
6.9 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 6.1
Replay with same day's form
Lions 13% · Vikings 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2019 games · Lions · Vikings

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