luckadjusted

Week 14 2019 · December 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Cardinals, Week 14 2019: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Cardinals 23–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Steelers win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:13 left): the Steelers were stopped on 4th & 6, worth 12 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 23
Arizona Cardinals 17

December 8, 2019 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −2.5

Luck index +59 Steelers lucky · −59 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 4, Cardinals win 6.

  1. 1 PIT 17 ARI 0
  2. 2 PIT 17 ARI 7
  3. 3 PIT 20 ARI 14
  4. 4 PIT 12 ARI 9
  5. 5 PIT 18 ARI 20
  6. 6 PIT 10 ARI 16
  7. 7 PIT 7 ARI 16
  8. 8 PIT 3 ARI 14
  9. 9 PIT 2 ARI 17
  10. 10 PIT 3 ARI 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 41% of them, Cardinals 59%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+5.1%
Steelers by 9–1613.4%
Steelers by 1–820.8%
Level after regulation2.5%
Cardinals by 1–828.5%
Cardinals by 9–1617.6%
Cardinals by 17+12.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Steelers by 6, without the luck Steelers by 6.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Boswell, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. Boswell, 25 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 4 for 20 yards, Cardinals 7 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards 0% PIT +0.9 pts
Q1 8:59 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals (Jordan Hicks), 15 yards +6% PIT +1.7 pts
Q1 3:35 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Bud Dupree), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.3 pts
Q1 1:05 False Start on the Cardinals (Maxx Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.4 pts
Q3 10:42 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% PIT +0.7 pts
Q3 9:01 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Tyson Alualu), 5 yards, wiping out the play +10% ARI +3.2 pts
Q3 3:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Byron Murphy), 15 yards +5% PIT +1.5 pts
Q3 2:58 Face Mask on the Cardinals (Terrell Suggs), 1 yard +2% PIT +0.3 pts
Q4 5:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Byron Murphy), 24 yards +9% PIT +2.5 pts
Q4 2:16 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.6 pts
Q4 0:48 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.1 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:13 Return touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +10% PIT PIT: Opp touchdown
2 Q2 1:57 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q3 11:32 The Cardinals converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% ARI ARI: Turnover
4 Q3 9:01 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Tyson Alualu), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 337 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +10% ARI ARI: Turnover
5 Q4 12:33 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +12% PIT ARI: Touchdown
6 Q4 8:13 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Steelers fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% ARI PIT: Field goal
7 Q4 6:49 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +10% ARI ARI: Touchdown
8 Q4 5:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Byron Murphy), 24 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 871 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +9% PIT PIT: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonathan Bullard (ARI DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • James Conner (PIT RB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 79% · Cardinals 21%

Final margin
Steelers by 6
Luck in points
0.2 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 6.2
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 41% · Cardinals 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2019 games · Steelers · Cardinals

More from Week 14 2019