luckadjusted

Week 14 2019 · December 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Texans, Week 14 2019: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Texans 38–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:52 left): Return touchdown by the Broncos, worth 30 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Denver Broncos 38
Houston Texans 24

December 8, 2019 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −8

Luck index +52 Broncos lucky · −52 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 5, Texans win 5.

  1. 1 DEN 31 HOU 7
  2. 2 DEN 30 HOU 13
  3. 3 DEN 27 HOU 17
  4. 4 DEN 23 HOU 17
  5. 5 DEN 13 HOU 10
  6. 6 DEN 24 HOU 26
  7. 7 DEN 9 HOU 13
  8. 8 DEN 17 HOU 24
  9. 9 DEN 16 HOU 28
  10. 10 DEN 13 HOU 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 48% of them, Texans 52%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+10.2%
Broncos by 9–1614.2%
Broncos by 1–821.3%
Level after regulation5.9%
Texans by 1–822.4%
Texans by 9–1614.2%
Texans by 17+11.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.2 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 14, without the luck Broncos by 10.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 54 yds made · 65% expected
  • B. McManus, 36 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 7 for 50 yards, Texans 9 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:03 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% DEN +0.6 pts
Q1 8:29 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos, 10 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 3:33 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Barkevious Mingo), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.4 pts
Q2 9:03 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.7 pts
Q2 1:40 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 5 yards 0% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 0:48 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 4 yards 0% DEN +1.5 pts
Q2 0:37 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Von Miller), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.6 pts
Q2 0:32 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.1 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Formation on the Texans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.4 pts
Q3 14:55 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Bradley Roby), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% DEN +1.2 pts
Q3 9:15 Illegal Formation on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.5 pts
Q3 2:37 Defensive Holding on the Broncos, 5 yards 0% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 13:34 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% HOU +1.9 pts
Q4 13:10 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (DaeSean Hamilton), 10 yards 0% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 9:44 False Start on the Texans (Darren Fells), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.8 pts
Q4 4:51 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.4 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:03 False Start on the Texans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:39 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +4% DEN HOU: Punt
3 Q1 7:31 The Broncos converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +9% DEN DEN: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:52 The Texans fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BroncosSpecial teams +30% DEN HOU: Punt
5 Q1 2:42 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +3% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q2 15:00 The Broncos converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% DEN DEN: Touchdown
7 Q2 8:53 K. Fairbairn made 54-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 3 of 7 from 45+ before +3% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 2:00 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +3% DEN HOU: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • J.J. Watt (HOU DE), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Will Fuller (HOU WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Phillip Gaines (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Derek Wolfe (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Joe Flacco (DEN QB), out (IR), replaced by d.lock · 0.5 pts
  • Ronald Leary (DEN G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Malik Reed (DEN LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 100% · Texans 0%

Final margin
Broncos by 14
Luck in points
3.2 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 10.8
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 48% · Texans 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2019 games · Broncos · Texans

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