Week 14 2019 · December 5, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Cowboys at Bears, Week 14 2019: who deserved to win?
The Bears stole one. They beat the Cowboys 31–24, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Bears.
The Bears won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Cowboys were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:05 left): B. Maher missed 42-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 24 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +87 Bears very lucky · −87 Cowboys
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Bears win 1.
- 1 DAL 44 CHI 10
- 2 DAL 45 CHI 20
- 3 DAL 47 CHI 27
- 4 DAL 41 CHI 24
- 5 DAL 20 CHI 6
- 6 DAL 20 CHI 10
- 7 DAL 23 CHI 15
- 8 DAL 32 CHI 27
- 9 DAL 27 CHI 24
- 10 DAL 20 CHI 26
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Bears won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | −0.02 | +0.16 | worse by 0.18 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.45 | +0.09 | worse by 0.36 |
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | +0.45 | +0.08 | better by 0.37 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.02 | +0.02 | better by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 87% of them, Bears 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 43.9% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 23.6% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 18.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 8.2% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 3.0% |
| Bears by 17+ | 1.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. Pineiro, 36 yds made · 90% expected
- B. Maher, 42 yds missed · 82% expected
- B. Maher, 31 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Cowboys 6 for 52 yards, Bears 4 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 14:20 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (DeMarcus Lawrence), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CHI +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:15 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bears (Javon Wims), 10 yards | +1% DAL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2:21 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CHI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:30 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Bears (Riley Ridley), 10 yards | +1% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 8:29 | Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Xavier Woods), 5 yards | +1% CHI +1.3 pts |
| Q4 14:17 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Byron Jones), 10 yards | +1% CHI +0.9 pts |
| Q4 13:13 | Intentional Grounding on the Cowboys (Dak Prescott), 12 yards | 0% CHI +1.4 pts |
| Q4 9:09 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q4 5:49 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Cowboys (Tavon Austin), 15 yards | +1% CHI +1.2 pts |
Cowboys penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:16 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +7% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 7:20 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 0:29 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +5% CHI | DAL: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 5:08 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +6% CHI | DAL: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q2 5:05 | B. Maher missed 42-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him | +13% CHI | DAL: End of half |
| 6 | Q2 0:14 | The Bears converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +7% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 11:41 | The Bears converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 15:00 | The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +6% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Prince Amukamara (CHI CB), out · 0.9 pts
- Bobby Massie (CHI T), out · 0.8 pts
- Taylor Gabriel (CHI WR), out · 0.5 pts
- Danny Trevathan (CHI LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Trey Burton (CHI TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out · 0.5 pts
- Connor Williams (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jeff Heath (DAL SS), out · 0.4 pts
- Antwaun Woods (DAL DT), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 69% · Bears 31%
- Final margin
- Bears by 7
- Luck in points
- 7.9 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 87% · Bears 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2019 games · 
Cowboys · 
Bears
More from Week 14 2019
- Ravens at Bills BAL 24–17 · replay 97% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons ATL 40–20 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bengals at Browns CLE 27–19 · replay 63% for the winner
- Broncos at Texans DEN 38–24 · replay 48% for the winner
- Lions at Vikings MIN 20–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Colts at Buccaneers TB 38–35 · replay 94% for the winner
- Dolphins at Jets NYJ 22–21 · replay 51% for the winner
- 49ers at Saints SF 48–46 · replay 67% for the winner
- Washington at Packers GB 20–15 · replay 90% for the winner
- Chargers at Jaguars LAC 45–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chiefs at Patriots KC 23–16 · replay 47% for the winner
- Steelers at Cardinals PIT 23–17 · replay 41% for the winner
- Titans at Raiders TEN 42–21 · replay 88% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams LA 28–12 · replay 87% for the winner
- Giants at Eagles PHI 23–17 · replay 88% for the winner