2019 season · final
Chicago Bears, 2019: game by game
The Bears went 8–8 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.0 wins. Luck added 4.0: the 2nd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–5.
Every game
How often the Bears win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Packers | L 3–10 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 2 | @ Broncos | W 16–14 | 10% | +90 |
| Week 3 | @ Washington | W 31–15 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 4 | vs Vikings | W 16–6 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 5 | @ Raiders | L 21–24 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 7 | vs Saints | L 25–36 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 8 | vs Chargers | L 16–17 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 9 | @ Eagles | L 14–22 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 10 | vs Lions | W 20–13 | 14% | +86 |
| Week 11 | @ Rams | L 7–17 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 12 | vs Giants | W 19–14 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 13 | @ Lions | W 24–20 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 14 | vs Cowboys | W 31–24 | 13% | +87 |
| Week 15 | @ Packers | L 13–21 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 16 | vs Chiefs | L 3–26 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 17 | @ Vikings | W 21–19 | 9% | +91 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bears’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.46 | +6.4 |
| Judgment calls | +0.23 | +15.3 |
| Injuries | +0.22 | +9.1 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.12 | +6.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.09 | +0.8 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.4 |