Week 1 2019 · September 5, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Packers at Bears, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?
The Packers beat the Bears 10–3 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.
An off day for the Bears: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bears were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:13 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 30 points of win probability to the Packers.
Final
 Green Bay Packers | 10 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Packers about even · −23 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Packers win 8, Bears win 2.
- 1 GB 37 CHI 10
- 2 GB 30 CHI 9
- 3 GB 37 CHI 20
- 4 GB 37 CHI 23
- 5 GB 31 CHI 21
- 6 GB 24 CHI 17
- 7 GB 27 CHI 22
- 8 GB 12 CHI 10
- 9 GB 17 CHI 20
- 10 GB 7 CHI 19
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Bears
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.18 | +0.11 | worse by 0.28 |
| Packers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.17 | +0.14 | better by 0.30 |
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | −0.17 | +0.14 | worse by 0.31 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.18 | +0.05 | better by 0.23 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Packers win 77% of them, Bears 23%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Packers by 17+ | 31.1% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 21.2% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 24.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 12.4% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 6.8% |
| Bears by 17+ | 2.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. Pineiro, 38 yds made · 89% expected
- M. Crosby, 39 yds made · 87% expected
Penalties: Packers 10 for 71 yards, Bears 10 for 107 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:01 | Defensive Holding on the Packers (Kenny Clark), 5 yards | 0% CHI +0.3 pts |
| Q1 8:04 | Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Packers, 5 yards | +1% CHI +0.5 pts |
| Q1 3:20 | Offensive Holding on the Bears (Joel Iyiegbuniwe), 4 yards | +1% GB +0.4 pts |
| Q1 1:50 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers, 6 yards | +4% CHI +1.4 pts |
| Q2 4:19 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards | +2% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:55 | False Start on the Packers (Aaron Rodgers), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CHI +0.3 pts |
| Q3 13:17 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards | +5% CHI +1.1 pts |
| Q3 13:11 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Roquan Smith), 38 yards | +13% GB +3.5 pts |
| Q3 12:16 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards | +3% CHI +2.3 pts |
| Q3 5:41 | Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% GB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:05 | Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% GB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:42 | False Start on the Packers (Trevor Davis), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CHI +0.5 pts |
| Q4 14:48 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers, 15 yards | +4% CHI +1.8 pts |
| Q4 13:44 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards | +6% GB +0.7 pts |
| Q4 13:35 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears, 10 yards | +5% GB +1.3 pts |
| Q4 13:13 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +30% GB +5.5 pts |
| Q4 11:55 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Packers, 5 yards | +2% CHI +0.5 pts |
| Q4 9:36 | Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CHI +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:01 | Illegal Contact on the Bears (Kyle Fuller), 5 yards | +5% GB +1.6 pts |
| Q4 1:45 | Offensive Holding on the Bears (Duke Shelley), 10 yards | +3% GB +0.9 pts |
Packers penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 6:19 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +9% CHI | GB: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 1:54 | The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +8% GB | GB: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 13:11 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Roquan Smith), 38 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet | +13% GB | GB: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 11:43 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +7% CHI | GB: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 4:05 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedDelay of Game on the Bears, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +12% GB | CHI: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 13:13 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +30% GB | GB: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 4:11 | The Bears converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +11% CHI | CHI: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 2:03 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +21% GB | CHI: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Trey Burton (CHI TE), out · 0.4 pts
- Equanimeous St. Brown (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Packers 37% · Bears 63%
- Final margin
- Packers by 7
- Luck in points
- 10.0 for the Packers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bears by 3.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Packers 77% · Bears 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · 
Packers · 
Bears
More from Week 1 2019
- Falcons at Vikings MIN 28–12 · replay 26% for the winner
- Ravens at Dolphins BAL 59–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Bills at Jets BUF 17–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Chiefs at Jaguars KC 40–26 · replay 91% for the winner
- Rams at Panthers LA 30–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Browns TEN 43–13 · replay 87% for the winner
- Washington at Eagles PHI 32–27 · replay 81% for the winner
- Bengals at Seahawks SEA 21–20 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colts at Chargers LAC 30–24 · replay 57% for the winner
- Lions at Cardinals ARI 27–27 · replay 30% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 35–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- 49ers at Buccaneers SF 31–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Steelers at Patriots NE 33–3 · replay 93% for the winner
- Texans at Saints NO 30–28 · replay 53% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders OAK 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner