luckadjusted

Week 1 2019 · September 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Dolphins, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Dolphins 59–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 70% favorites.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 59
Miami Dolphins 10

September 8, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −7

Luck index 0 Ravens about even · 0 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 10, Dolphins win 0.

  1. 1 BAL 55 MIA 10
  2. 2 BAL 51 MIA 13
  3. 3 BAL 42 MIA 10
  4. 4 BAL 30 MIA 0
  5. 5 BAL 34 MIA 7
  6. 6 BAL 38 MIA 14
  7. 7 BAL 55 MIA 34
  8. 8 BAL 34 MIA 16
  9. 9 BAL 27 MIA 13
  10. 10 BAL 34 MIA 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 100% of them, Dolphins 0%. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 49.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+90.7%
Ravens by 9–166.7%
Ravens by 1–82.2%
Level after regulation0.1%
Dolphins by 1–80.3%
Dolphins by 9–160.0%
Dolphins by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.1 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 49, without the luck Ravens by 43.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 54 yds made · 64% expected
  • J. Tucker, 34 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 4 for 40 yards, Dolphins 9 for 64 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 15:00 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Eric Rowe), 5 yards 0% BAL +0.2 pts
Q2 14:54 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Avery Moss), 5 yards 0% BAL +0.9 pts
Q2 11:15 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.5 pts
Q2 6:50 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards 0% BAL +0.9 pts
Q2 1:49 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins, 4 yards 0% BAL +2.1 pts
Q2 1:42 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Tim Williams), 15 yards 0% MIA +1.8 pts
Q3 14:02 Illegal Motion on the Dolphins (Jakeem Grant), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.6 pts
Q3 11:17 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins (Charles Harris), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.7 pts
Q3 9:10 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards 0% MIA +1.7 pts
Q3 7:04 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% BAL +2.6 pts
Q3 4:27 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% MIA +2.4 pts
Q3 2:21 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Dolphins (Bobby McCain), 15 yards 0% BAL +1.8 pts
Q4 9:24 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.5 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:38 The Ravens converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +2% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:31 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +1% BAL MIA: Punt
3 Q1 4:28 The Ravens converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:29 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +2% BAL MIA: Punt
5 Q2 15:00 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Eric Rowe), 5 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet +0% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 14:54 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Avery Moss), 5 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet +0% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:56 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +0% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q3 7:04 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% BAL BAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tavon Young (BAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 100% · Dolphins 0%

Final margin
Ravens by 49
Luck in points
5.1 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 43.9
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 100% · Dolphins 0% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · Ravens · Dolphins

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