luckadjusted

Week 1 2019 · September 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Lions at Cardinals, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals and the Lions tied 27–27. Replayed with the way both teams played, the Cardinals win 3 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 0:05 left): the Lions were stopped on 4th & 24, worth 47 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final (OT)

Detroit Lions 27
Arizona Cardinals 27

September 8, 2019 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Lions −2.5

Luck index +20 Cardinals about even · −20 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 7, Cardinals win 3.

  1. 1 DET 39 ARI 9
  2. 2 DET 27 ARI 6
  3. 3 DET 23 ARI 7
  4. 4 DET 40 ARI 26
  5. 5 DET 33 ARI 24
  6. 6 DET 28 ARI 23
  7. 7 DET 29 ARI 27
  8. 8 DET 26 ARI 29
  9. 9 DET 31 ARI 41
  10. 10 DET 14 ARI 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 70% of them, Cardinals 30%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tie.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+28.3%
Lions by 9–1618.0%
Lions by 1–821.9%
Level after regulation2.9%
Cardinals by 1–813.6%
Cardinals by 9–169.3%
Cardinals by 17+6.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.0 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was even, without the luck Lions by 9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 55 yds made · 67% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Prater, 33 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 9 for 59 yards, Cardinals 7 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:56 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (J.R. Sweezy), 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% DET +2.1 pts
Q2 10:01 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 5 yards +1% ARI +0.5 pts
Q2 4:38 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Jordan Hicks), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +1.5 pts
Q2 4:12 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Terrell Suggs), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.3 pts
Q2 1:07 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.2 pts
Q2 1:07 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Chandler Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.2 pts
Q3 13:27 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% ARI +2.0 pts
Q3 9:57 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +2% ARI +0.9 pts
Q3 9:08 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 9 yards, wiping out the play +4% ARI +2.3 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.7 pts
Q4 14:36 False Start on the Cardinals (KeeSean Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.8 pts
Q4 14:14 Illegal Formation on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% DET +1.6 pts
Q4 8:07 Illegal Motion on the Cardinals (Damiere Byrd), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.7 pts
Q4 7:19 Illegal Contact on the Lions, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% DET +0.2 pts
Q4 0:52 Face Mask on the Lions (Trey Flowers), 5 yards +3% ARI +1.1 pts
QOT 0:05 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI 0.0 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 1% and as high as 99%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:00 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +10% DET ARI: Punt
2 Q4 0:43 The Cardinals’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +21% ARI ARI: Field goal
3 QOT 7:21 Z. Gonzalez made 28-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +37% DET ARI: Punt
4 QOT 3:52 M. Prater made 33-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +24% ARI DET: Turnover on downs
5 QOT 3:08 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +11% ARI ARI: Punt
6 QOT 2:00 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +18% ARI ARI: Punt
7 QOT 1:13 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +22% DET ARI: Punt
8 QOT 0:05 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 243rd & 4th downs · 14% expectedDelay of Game on the Lions, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +47% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jarrad Davis (DET LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Da'Shawn Hand (DET DE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 91% · Cardinals 9%

Final margin
even
Luck in points
9.0 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 9.0
Replay with same day's form
Lions 70% · Cardinals 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · Lions · Cardinals

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