luckadjusted

Week 1 2019 · September 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Patriots, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Steelers 33–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 66% favorites.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 3
New England Patriots 33

September 8, 2019 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −5.5

Luck index +7 Patriots about even · −7 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 1, Patriots win 9.

  1. 1 PIT 24 NE 19
  2. 2 PIT 10 NE 13
  3. 3 PIT 24 NE 30
  4. 4 PIT 7 NE 16
  5. 5 PIT 10 NE 22
  6. 6 PIT 10 NE 26
  7. 7 PIT 22 NE 41
  8. 8 PIT 17 NE 39
  9. 9 PIT 3 NE 27
  10. 10 PIT 3 NE 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 7% of them, Patriots 93%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 30.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+0.2%
Steelers by 9–161.1%
Steelers by 1–84.7%
Level after regulation1.7%
Patriots by 1–815.6%
Patriots by 9–1621.4%
Patriots by 17+55.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth 0.0 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 30, without the luck Patriots by 30. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Gostkowski, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Boswell, 19 yds made · 99% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 39 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 6 for 54 yards, Patriots 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:20 Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Ryan Izzo), 10 yards +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q1 4:06 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +2% NE +1.1 pts
Q1 3:25 False Start on the Steelers (Donte Moncrief), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.3 pts
Q2 9:12 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Ja'Whaun Bentley), 5 yards +1% PIT +0.2 pts
Q3 12:03 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Stephon Gilmore), 5 yards +1% PIT +1.3 pts
Q3 6:43 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% NE +3.3 pts
Q3 6:08 Defensive Offside on the Patriots (Shilique Calhoun), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% NE +0.4 pts
Q4 9:17 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% PIT +1.7 pts
Q4 8:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Bud Dupree), 9 yards, wiping out the play 0% PIT 0.0 pts
Q4 7:16 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards 0% PIT +0.9 pts
Q4 6:06 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.7 pts
Q4 4:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 10 yards 0% PIT +1.8 pts
Q4 2:06 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers, 15 yards 0% NE +1.4 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 The Patriots converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +5% NE NE: Punt
2 Q1 7:20 Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Ryan Izzo), 10 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet +3% PIT PIT: Punt
3 Q1 5:58 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% NE NE: Touchdown
4 Q2 12:00 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +3% PIT NE: Field goal
5 Q2 7:46 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +4% NE PIT: Punt
6 Q3 13:27 The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +3% PIT PIT: Field goal
7 Q3 11:58 The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% PIT PIT: Field goal
8 Q3 8:13 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +4% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sean Davis (PIT FS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 0% · Patriots 100%

Final margin
Patriots by 30
Luck in points
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 30.0
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 7% · Patriots 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · Steelers · Patriots

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