Week 1 2019 · September 8, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Titans at Browns, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?
The Titans beat the Browns 43–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Browns: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Browns were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:21 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Odell Beckham Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Titans.
Final
 Tennessee Titans | 43 |
|---|---|
 Cleveland Browns | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Titans about even · −13 Browns
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Titans win 9, Browns win 1.
- 1 TEN 55 CLE 20
- 2 TEN 42 CLE 15
- 3 TEN 44 CLE 23
- 4 TEN 37 CLE 20
- 5 TEN 31 CLE 17
- 6 TEN 17 CLE 6
- 7 TEN 33 CLE 26
- 8 TEN 38 CLE 33
- 9 TEN 29 CLE 27
- 10 TEN 23 CLE 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Browns
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
49 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | +0.10 | better by 0.05 |
| Titans defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.10 | worse by 0.01 |
| Browns offenseEPA per play gained | +0.11 | +0.10 | better by 0.01 |
| Browns defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.12 | worse by 0.03 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Titans win 87% of them, Browns 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 30.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Titans by 17+ | 49.1% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 17.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 7.6% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 4.0% |
| Browns by 17+ | 1.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Santos, 37 yds made · 90% expected
- C. Santos, 53 yds made · 64% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Titans 6 for 54 yards, Browns 18 for 182 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:17 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Browns, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +8% TEN +2.5 pts |
| Q1 10:11 | Illegal Double-Team Block on the Titans, 8 yards | +1% CLE +0.7 pts |
| Q1 10:04 | Roughing the Passer on the Browns, 15 yards | +3% TEN +1.8 pts |
| Q1 6:32 | Illegal Double-Team Block on the Browns (D'Ernest Johnson), 11 yards | +2% TEN +1.0 pts |
| Q1 5:42 | Defensive Holding on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% CLE +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:50 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CLE +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:11 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 15 yards | +4% TEN +1.1 pts |
| Q2 13:11 | Defensive Holding on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 5 yards | +7% TEN +1.7 pts |
| Q2 11:08 | Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Sheldon Richardson), 15 yards | +4% TEN +1.5 pts |
| Q2 10:18 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Sheldon Richardson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% TEN +1.3 pts |
| Q2 5:03 | Disqualification on the Browns, 15 yards | +4% TEN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 1:47 | False Start on the Browns, 1 yard · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:21 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Odell Beckham Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% TEN +2.9 pts |
| Q3 10:14 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | +3% TEN +1.3 pts |
| Q3 6:13 | Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLE +0.4 pts |
| Q3 5:58 | Offensive Holding on the Browns (Greedy Williams), 10 yards | +1% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:52 | Offensive Holding on the Browns (Demetrius Harris), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% TEN +2.0 pts |
| Q3 5:52 | False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Browns (Demetrius Harris), 10 yards | +1% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 13:05 | Defensive Holding on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 5 yards | +1% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 8:47 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Kevin Byard), 16 yards | 0% CLE +2.1 pts |
| Q4 8:43 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | 0% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:52 | Face Mask on the Titans (Derrick Henry), 15 yards | 0% CLE +1.4 pts |
| Q4 3:02 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Browns, 15 yards | +1% TEN +1.4 pts |
Titans penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Browns’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:17 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Browns, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 4:23 | The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +7% TEN | CLE: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 13:11 | Defensive Holding on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 5 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet | +7% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 10:18 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Sheldon Richardson), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · no snap history yet | +4% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 5:03 | Disqualification on the Browns, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% TEN | TEN: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 0:21 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Odell Beckham Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · no snap history yet | +10% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 5:52 | Offensive Holding on the Browns (Demetrius Harris), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · no snap history yetFalse Start on the Browns, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 4:12 | The Browns converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +8% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ryan Succop (TEN K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Titans 88% · Browns 12%
- Final margin
- Titans by 30
- Luck in points
- 21.0 for the Titans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 9.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Titans 87% · Browns 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · 
Titans · 
Browns
More from Week 1 2019
- Packers at Bears GB 10–3 · replay 77% for the winner
- Falcons at Vikings MIN 28–12 · replay 26% for the winner
- Ravens at Dolphins BAL 59–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Bills at Jets BUF 17–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Chiefs at Jaguars KC 40–26 · replay 91% for the winner
- Rams at Panthers LA 30–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- Washington at Eagles PHI 32–27 · replay 81% for the winner
- Bengals at Seahawks SEA 21–20 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colts at Chargers LAC 30–24 · replay 57% for the winner
- Lions at Cardinals ARI 27–27 · replay 30% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 35–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- 49ers at Buccaneers SF 31–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Steelers at Patriots NE 33–3 · replay 93% for the winner
- Texans at Saints NO 30–28 · replay 53% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders OAK 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner