luckadjusted

2026 NFL season · September 9, 2026–September 14

Week 1 2026: who deserved to win

6 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Giants beat the Cowboys 28–20 in a game they win 15% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 1 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Cardinals 26–14 @ Chargers 26% 49% Coin flip
49ers 27–7 @ Rams 40% 89% Deserved
Giants 28–20 vs Cowboys 41% 15% Lucky
Jets 23–10 @ Titans 46% 81% Deserved

Week 1 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Giants W 28–20 vs Cowboys 15% +85
2 Eagles W 24–22 vs Commanders 41% +59
3 Lions W 31–30 vs Saints 41% +59
4 Raiders W 27–13 vs Dolphins 45% +55
5 Vikings W 39–22 vs Packers 45% +55
6 Cardinals W 26–14 @ Chargers 49% +51
7 Steelers W 20–13 vs Falcons 74% +26
8 Bears W 59–37 @ Panthers 76% +25
9 Seahawks W 13–10 vs Patriots 77% +23
10 Jets W 23–10 @ Titans 81% +19
11 Ravens W 41–23 @ Colts 86% +14
12 Chiefs W 31–10 vs Broncos 86% +14
13 49ers W 27–7 @ Rams 89% +11
14 Bills W 36–31 @ Texans 93% +7
15 Bengals W 33–27 vs Buccaneers 96% +4
16 Jaguars W 34–10 vs Browns 98% +2
17 Browns L 10–34 @ Jaguars 2% −2
18 Buccaneers L 27–33 @ Bengals 4% −4
19 Texans L 31–36 vs Bills 7% −7
20 Rams L 7–27 vs 49ers 11% −11
21 Broncos L 10–31 @ Chiefs 14% −14
22 Colts L 23–41 vs Ravens 14% −14
23 Titans L 10–23 vs Jets 19% −19
24 Patriots L 10–13 @ Seahawks 23% −23
25 Panthers L 37–59 vs Bears 25% −25
26 Falcons L 13–20 @ Steelers 26% −26
27 Chargers L 14–26 vs Cardinals 51% −51
28 Packers L 22–39 @ Vikings 55% −55
29 Dolphins L 13–27 @ Raiders 55% −55
30 Saints L 30–31 @ Lions 59% −59
31 Commanders L 22–24 @ Eagles 59% −59
32 Cowboys L 20–28 @ Giants 85% −85