Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026
Cowboys at Giants, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
The Giants stole one. They beat the Cowboys 28–20, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Giants.
The Giants won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Cowboys were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:58 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 12 points of win probability to the Giants.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 20 |
|---|---|
 New York Giants | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +85 Giants very lucky · −85 Cowboys
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Giants win 1.
- 1 DAL 42 NYG 17
- 2 DAL 23 NYG 3
- 3 DAL 22 NYG 7
- 4 DAL 20 NYG 7
- 5 DAL 10 NYG 0
- 6 DAL 16 NYG 7
- 7 DAL 20 NYG 14
- 8 DAL 10 NYG 7
- 9 DAL 9 NYG 7
- 10 DAL 3 NYG 9
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Giants won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Giants: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | +0.23 | +0.16 | better by 0.07 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.46 | +0.19 | worse by 0.27 |
| Giants offenseEPA per play gained | +0.46 | +0.07 | better by 0.39 |
| Giants defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.13 | worse by 0.09 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 85% of them, Giants 15%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 26.6% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 26.6% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 30.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.9% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 9.3% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 2.9% |
| Giants by 17+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Cowboys 9 for 90 yards, Giants 10 for 114 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:18 | Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 4 yards · pre-snap | +3% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q1 10:09 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Quinnen Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +0.2 pts |
| Q1 9:38 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (DeMarvion Overshown), 15 yards | +5% NYG +2.0 pts |
| Q1 6:40 | Low Block on the Cowboys (Jonathan Mingo), 11 yards | +2% NYG +1.3 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Jaishawn Barham), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:45 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 10:25 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Luke Schoonmaker), 10 yards | +4% NYG +2.1 pts |
| Q2 9:57 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Greg Newsome II), 38 yards | +8% DAL +4.3 pts |
| Q2 7:50 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% NYG +2.2 pts |
| Q2 6:45 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 19 yards | +6% DAL +1.9 pts |
| Q2 5:44 | Offensive Holding on the Giants (Elijah Campbell), 10 yards | +2% DAL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:40 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q3 3:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 11 yards | +1% DAL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:28 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 1 yard | +2% DAL +0.1 pts |
| Q4 9:02 | Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 5:42 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Jevon Holland), 15 yards | +2% DAL +2.2 pts |
| Q4 5:26 | Taunting on the Cowboys (Javonte Williams), 15 yards | +1% NYG +1.1 pts |
| Q4 3:01 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.3 pts |
| Q4 2:10 | Face Mask on the Cowboys (Donovan Ezeiruaku), 15 yards | +1% NYG +1.7 pts |
Cowboys penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Giants’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:11 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedG. Pickens dropped a catchable passDrops · 17 drops on 319 catchable balls before this | +7% NYG | DAL: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 9:57 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Greg Newsome II), 38 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 4061 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +8% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 7:50 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% NYG | NYG: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 4:14 | The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% NYG | NYG: Turnover |
| 5 | Q2 2:36 | The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% NYG | NYG: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 1:24 | G. Pickens dropped a catchable passDrops · 18 drops on 320 catchable balls before this | +6% NYG | DAL: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 0:58 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +12% NYG | DAL: End of half |
| 8 | Q2 0:40 | The Giants converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedFalse Start on the Giants, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% NYG | NYG: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Roy Robertson-Harris (NYG DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Tyler Smith (DAL OL), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 55% · Giants 45%
- Final margin
- Giants by 8
- Luck in points
- 9.8 for the Giants
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 85% · Giants 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Cowboys · 
Giants
More from Week 1 2026
- Patriots at Seahawks SEA 13–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- 49ers vs Rams SF 27–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- Falcons at Steelers PIT 20–13 · replay 74% for the winner
- Ravens at Colts BAL 41–23 · replay 86% for the winner
- Bills at Texans BUF 36–31 · replay 93% for the winner
- Bears at Panthers CHI 59–37 · replay 76% for the winner
- Browns at Jaguars JAX 34–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Saints at Lions DET 31–30 · replay 41% for the winner
- Jets at Titans NYJ 23–10 · replay 81% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Bengals CIN 33–27 · replay 96% for the winner
- Cardinals at Chargers ARI 26–14 · replay 49% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings MIN 39–22 · replay 45% for the winner
- Dolphins at Raiders LV 27–13 · replay 45% for the winner
- Commanders at Eagles PHI 24–22 · replay 41% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 31–10 · replay 86% for the winner