luckadjusted

Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026

Falcons at Steelers, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Falcons 20–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:16 left): Return touchdown by the Steelers, worth 29 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 13
Pittsburgh Steelers 20

September 13, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −6.5

Luck index +26 Steelers lucky · −26 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 3, Steelers win 7.

  1. 1 ATL 34 PIT 16
  2. 2 ATL 16 PIT 6
  3. 3 ATL 22 PIT 19
  4. 4 ATL 23 PIT 26
  5. 5 ATL 13 PIT 19
  6. 6 ATL 10 PIT 19
  7. 7 ATL 13 PIT 25
  8. 8 ATL 3 PIT 19
  9. 9 ATL 0 PIT 20
  10. 10 ATL 3 PIT 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 26% of them, Steelers 74%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+3.0%
Falcons by 9–167.9%
Falcons by 1–812.8%
Level after regulation2.4%
Steelers by 1–824.4%
Steelers by 9–1618.9%
Steelers by 17+30.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Steelers by 7, without the luck Steelers by 8.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Boswell, 28 yds made · 100% expected
  • N. Folk, 54 yds missed · 73% expected
  • N. Folk, 45 yds missed · 87% expected
  • N. Folk, 51 yds made · 76% expected
  • N. Folk, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Boswell, 56 yds missed · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 9 for 96 yards, Steelers 7 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:26 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +4% PIT +1.2 pts
Q1 1:06 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% PIT +0.8 pts
Q2 14:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 37 yards +14% PIT +3.7 pts
Q2 12:28 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Josh Woods), 10 yards +3% PIT +1.0 pts
Q2 6:56 Face Mask on the Steelers, 8 yards, wiping out the play +6% ATL +1.6 pts
Q2 6:19 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.1 pts
Q2 3:56 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% PIT +1.9 pts
Q2 1:56 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% ATL +1.5 pts
Q2 1:00 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q2 0:38 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.1 pts
Q3 12:08 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Yahya Black), 5 yards +3% ATL +0.8 pts
Q3 9:31 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Falcons (Sydney Brown), 9 yards 0% PIT +0.7 pts
Q3 9:19 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Derrick Harmon), 5 yards +1% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 8:14 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 15 yards +4% ATL +2.0 pts
Q3 6:04 False Start on the Steelers (Michael Pittman Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.4 pts
Q4 10:35 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Falcons (Jake Bailey), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT 0.0 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:48 The Steelers fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% ATL PIT: Field goal
2 Q1 1:19 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +11% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 37 yardsJudgment calls · 29 flags in 5989 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +14% PIT PIT: Field goal
4 Q2 1:56 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 34 flags in 6363 snaps before, position avg 1 per 402 +9% ATL ATL: Punt
5 Q3 4:46 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedD. Metcalf dropped a catchable passDrops · 16 drops on 336 catchable balls before this +11% ATL PIT: Punt
6 Q3 0:18 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedD. Metcalf dropped a catchable passDrops · 17 drops on 337 catchable balls before this +10% ATL PIT: Punt
7 Q4 14:16 The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +29% PIT ATL: Field goal
8 Q4 7:04 C. Boswell missed 56-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 73 of 89 from 45+ before +10% ATL PIT: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joey Porter Jr. (PIT CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jalon Walker (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 17% · Steelers 83%

Final margin
Steelers by 7
Luck in points
1.8 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 8.8
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 26% · Steelers 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Falcons · Steelers

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