luckadjusted

Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026

Cardinals at Chargers, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Chargers 26–14, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Cardinals win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:28 left): Blocked punt by the Cardinals, worth 15 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 26
Los Angeles Chargers 14

September 13, 2026 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −8.5

Luck index +51 Cardinals lucky · −51 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 5, Chargers win 5.

  1. 1 ARI 36 LAC 14
  2. 2 ARI 34 LAC 20
  3. 3 ARI 33 LAC 24
  4. 4 ARI 20 LAC 15
  5. 5 ARI 12 LAC 10
  6. 6 ARI 21 LAC 23
  7. 7 ARI 21 LAC 26
  8. 8 ARI 14 LAC 23
  9. 9 ARI 10 LAC 24
  10. 10 ARI 9 LAC 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 49% of them, Chargers 51%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+9.8%
Cardinals by 9–1613.8%
Cardinals by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation6.4%
Chargers by 1–822.9%
Chargers by 9–1613.8%
Chargers by 17+10.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.3 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Cardinals by 12, without the luck Cardinals by 17.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 54 yds missed · 64% expected
  • C. Ryland, 27 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Ryland, 44 yds made · 82% expected
  • C. Ryland, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Ryland, 49 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 8 for 111 yards, Chargers 7 for 64 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:59 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% LAC +1.4 pts
Q2 12:43 False Start on the Cardinals (Hunter Long), 4 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.6 pts
Q2 10:31 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.7 pts
Q2 6:47 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chargers, 10 yards +4% ARI +1.6 pts
Q2 6:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Denzel Burke), 24 yards +5% LAC +1.8 pts
Q2 0:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Donte Jackson), 24 yards +4% ARI +1.8 pts
Q2 0:09 Face Mask on the Cardinals, 15 yards +4% LAC +0.8 pts
Q3 13:03 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ARI +0.8 pts
Q3 7:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Max Melton), 48 yards +9% LAC +3.4 pts
Q3 7:25 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Cardinals (Chad Ryland), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC 0.0 pts
Q3 3:46 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LAC +0.6 pts
Q3 1:22 False Start on the Chargers (Charlie Kolar), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.7 pts
Q4 4:33 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +2% ARI +1.0 pts
Q4 4:33 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.8 pts
Q4 4:33 False Start on the Chargers (Quentin Johnston), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.4 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:30 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:29 The Chargers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +8% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:55 C. Ryland missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 21 of 35 from 45+ before +7% LAC ARI: Field goal
4 Q2 6:54 C. Ryland made 27-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +10% LAC ARI: Field goal
5 Q2 2:00 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +12% ARI LAC: Punt
6 Q3 7:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Max Melton), 48 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1241 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Cardinals (Chad Ryland), 0 yardsPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 392 snaps before, position avg 1 per 254 +9% LAC LAC: Touchdown
7 Q3 6:07 The Chargers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% LAC LAC: Touchdown
8 Q4 12:28 Blocked punt by the CardinalsSpecial teams +15% ARI ARI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Denzel Perryman (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • R.J. Mickens (LAC S), out · 0.1 pts
  • Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Isaiah Adams (ARI OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (ARI S), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 99% · Chargers 1%

Final margin
Cardinals by 12
Luck in points
5.3 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 17.3
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 49% · Chargers 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Cardinals · Chargers

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