luckadjusted

Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026

Packers at Vikings, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Packers 39–22, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 79 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 54% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 6:49 left): Defensive Holding on the Packers (Xavier McKinney), 3 yards, wiping out the play, worth 39 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Green Bay Packers 22
Minnesota Vikings 39

September 13, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −1.5

Luck index +55 Vikings lucky · −55 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 5, Vikings win 5.

  1. 1 GB 33 MIN 9
  2. 2 GB 38 MIN 23
  3. 3 GB 34 MIN 24
  4. 4 GB 23 MIN 17
  5. 5 GB 20 MIN 17
  6. 6 GB 20 MIN 22
  7. 7 GB 18 MIN 23
  8. 8 GB 7 MIN 16
  9. 9 GB 13 MIN 26
  10. 10 GB 19 MIN 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 55% of them, Vikings 45%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+13.5%
Packers by 9–1614.9%
Packers by 1–821.3%
Level after regulation5.5%
Vikings by 1–820.5%
Vikings by 9–1613.5%
Vikings by 17+10.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +22.0 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 17, without the luck Packers by 5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Smack, 59 yds made · 61% expected
  • W. Reichard, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • T. Smack, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • T. Smack, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 12 for 98 yards, Vikings 3 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:29 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIN +0.8 pts
Q1 9:17 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +0.7 pts
Q1 8:57 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.4 pts
Q1 6:16 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Javon Bullard), 15 yards +4% MIN +1.6 pts
Q2 14:10 False Start on the Packers (Jordan Love), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.5 pts
Q2 5:56 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.7 pts
Q2 5:52 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +2% MIN +1.0 pts
Q2 4:36 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Brenton Cox), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.5 pts
Q2 3:43 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Evan Williams), 15 yards +4% MIN +1.7 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Dani Dennis-Sutton), 10 yards +1% MIN +0.9 pts
Q4 13:21 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Dallas Turner), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +0.7 pts
Q4 13:11 Encroachment on the Packers (Jonathan Ford), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.5 pts
Q4 11:03 Illegal Contact on the Packers (Javon Bullard), 5 yards, wiping out the play +14% MIN +2.6 pts
Q4 9:12 Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Chris McClellan), 15 yards +6% MIN +1.9 pts
Q4 6:49 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Xavier McKinney), 3 yards, wiping out the play +39% MIN +7.1 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 9% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:47 The Packers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q3 2:11 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q4 13:17 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +15% MIN GB: Turnover
4 Q4 11:03 Illegal Contact on the Packers (Javon Bullard), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1882 snaps before, position avg 1 per 468 +14% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 6:49 The game turned hereDefensive Holding on the Packers (Xavier McKinney), 3 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 5937 snaps before, position avg 1 per 468 +39% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q4 6:37 The Vikings’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:52 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% GB GB: Turnover
8 Q4 5:01 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Packers fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +23% MIN GB: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Micah Parsons (GB DL), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Aaron Banks (GB G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 62% · Vikings 38%

Final margin
Vikings by 17
Luck in points
22.0 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Packers 55% · Vikings 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Packers · Vikings

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