luckadjusted

Week 1 2026 · September 9, 2026

Patriots at Seahawks, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Patriots 13–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:26 left): the Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 70 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

New England Patriots 10
Seattle Seahawks 13

September 9, 2026 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −3

Luck index +23 Seahawks about even · −23 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 2, Seahawks win 8.

  1. 1 NE 17 SEA 3
  2. 2 NE 21 SEA 17
  3. 3 NE 14 SEA 16
  4. 4 NE 17 SEA 21
  5. 5 NE 17 SEA 24
  6. 6 NE 20 SEA 30
  7. 7 NE 7 SEA 21
  8. 8 NE 14 SEA 30
  9. 9 NE 13 SEA 33
  10. 10 NE 7 SEA 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 23% of them, Seahawks 77%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+2.4%
Patriots by 9–166.2%
Patriots by 1–813.9%
Level after regulation4.3%
Seahawks by 1–826.3%
Seahawks by 9–1622.6%
Seahawks by 17+24.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Seahawks by 3, without the luck Seahawks by 9.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Borregales, 50 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Myers, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 26 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Patriots 7 for 50 yards, Seahawks 10 for 98 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:32 False Start on the Seahawks (Eric Saubert), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.5 pts
Q1 9:14 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Derick Hall), 15 yards +5% NE +1.4 pts
Q2 9:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Josh Jobe), 34 yards +8% NE +2.5 pts
Q2 6:54 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.3 pts
Q2 6:02 False Start on the Seahawks (AJ Barner), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.3 pts
Q2 4:54 Offensive Offside on the Seahawks, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +1.2 pts
Q3 13:26 Roughing the Kicker on the Seahawks (Chazz Surratt), 15 yards +8% NE +4.0 pts
Q3 10:18 Encroachment on the Patriots (Milton Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.8 pts
Q3 7:23 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.3 pts
Q3 3:25 Illegal Shift on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +15% NE +3.1 pts
Q3 3:06 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.7 pts
Q3 1:48 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Patriots, 10 yards +5% SEA +1.5 pts
Q4 11:28 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Patriots (Gabe Jacas), 10 yards +2% SEA +0.9 pts
Q4 6:42 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.7 pts
Q4 5:59 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NE +1.2 pts
Q4 5:45 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% SEA +1.5 pts
Q4 3:03 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Patriots, 5 yards +9% SEA +0.5 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 3:25 Illegal Shift on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +15% NE NE: Turnover
2 Q4 11:38 The Seahawks converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +36% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q4 5:45 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% SEA SEA: End of game
4 Q4 3:49 The Patriots converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +10% NE NE: Turnover
5 Q4 3:03 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Patriots, 5 yardsJudgment calls +9% SEA SEA: End of game
6 Q4 2:00 The Patriots converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +19% NE NE: Turnover
7 Q4 0:44 The Patriots converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +9% NE NE: Turnover
8 Q4 0:26 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +70% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zach Charbonnet (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Emmanwori (SEA S), out · 0.3 pts
  • Bryce Baringer (NE P), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 10% · Seahawks 90%

Final margin
Seahawks by 3
Luck in points
6.3 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 9.3
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 23% · Seahawks 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Patriots · Seahawks

More from Week 1 2026