luckadjusted

Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026

Saints at Lions, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Saints 31–30, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Lions win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Lions were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 3:13 left): the Saints converted 4th & 3, worth 33 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final (OT)

New Orleans Saints 30
Detroit Lions 31

September 13, 2026 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −7

Luck index +59 Lions lucky · −59 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 6, Lions win 4.

  1. 1 NO 40 DET 13
  2. 2 NO 43 DET 26
  3. 3 NO 42 DET 30
  4. 4 NO 29 DET 20
  5. 5 NO 23 DET 17
  6. 6 NO 18 DET 17
  7. 7 NO 20 DET 22
  8. 8 NO 30 DET 38
  9. 9 NO 13 DET 27
  10. 10 NO 26 DET 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 59% of them, Lions 41%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+18.5%
Saints by 9–1616.7%
Saints by 1–821.6%
Level after regulation2.3%
Lions by 1–818.3%
Lions by 9–1612.9%
Lions by 17+9.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 points to the Saints: the final margin was Lions by 1, without the luck Lions by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Bates, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 62 yds missed · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 6 for 53 yards, Lions 8 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:32 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.6 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +3% NO +1.4 pts
Q2 12:27 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Christen Miller), 5 yards +1% DET +0.5 pts
Q2 8:03 Intentional Grounding on the Saints (Tyler Shough), 13 yards +2% DET +1.4 pts
Q2 3:21 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.5 pts
Q2 1:33 Illegal Contact on the Lions (Rock Ya-Sin), 5 yards +2% NO +0.2 pts
Q3 15:00 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Lions (Jake Bates), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NO 0.0 pts
Q3 0:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Rock Ya-Sin), 21 yards +6% NO +2.2 pts
Q4 8:58 Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.8 pts
Q4 7:41 Face Mask on the Saints (Tyree Wilson), 15 yards +4% DET +1.8 pts
Q4 6:56 Low Block on the Saints (Quincy Riley), 14 yards +2% DET +1.8 pts
Q4 5:25 Defensive Offside on the Saints (Chase Young), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% DET +0.1 pts
Q4 4:54 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +2% NO +1.7 pts
QOT 2:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (Keith Abney), 5 yards +10% NO +0.7 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:22 The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q4 10:03 The Saints converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +11% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q4 0:40 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% NO DET: Punt
4 Q4 0:02 D. Carlson missed 62-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 58 of 79 from 45+ before +32% DET NO: Touchdown
5 QOT 3:49 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedThe Saints fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NO NO: Touchdown
6 QOT 3:13 The Saints converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +33% NO NO: Touchdown
7 QOT 2:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (Keith Abney), 5 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet +10% NO NO: Touchdown
8 QOT 1:34 The Saints’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +30% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brian Branch (DET DB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Mason Tipton (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bryan Bresee (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dillon Radunz (NO OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Devin Neal (NO RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 39% · Lions 61%

Final margin
Lions by 1
Luck in points
0.4 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Saints 59% · Lions 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Saints · Lions

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