Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026
Buccaneers at Bengals, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
The Bengals beat the Buccaneers 33–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 10 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.
An off day for the Buccaneers: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bengals were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:29 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 50 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Final
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 27 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Bengals about even · −4 Buccaneers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Buccaneers win 0, Bengals win 10.
- 1 TB 27 CIN 29
- 2 TB 23 CIN 27
- 3 TB 24 CIN 33
- 4 TB 21 CIN 31
- 5 TB 14 CIN 27
- 6 TB 9 CIN 24
- 7 TB 0 CIN 17
- 8 TB 17 CIN 38
- 9 TB 6 CIN 31
- 10 TB 3 CIN 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Buccaneers
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
35 points apart for the Buccaneers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.22 | +0.09 | better by 0.13 |
| Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.13 | worse by 0.02 |
| Bengals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | +0.11 | better by 0.04 |
| Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.22 | +0.18 | worse by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Buccaneers win 4% of them, Bengals 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 0.7% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 2.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 12.7% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 19.0% |
| Bengals by 17+ | 64.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. McLaughlin, 34 yds made · 94% expected
- E. McPherson, 20 yds made · 100% expected
- E. McPherson, 55 yds made · 65% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 51 yds made · 74% expected
- E. McPherson, 58 yds made · 61% expected
- E. McPherson, 32 yds made · 96% expected
Penalties: Buccaneers 8 for 39 yards, Bengals 7 for 47 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:35 | Defensive Offside on the Bengals (B.J. Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on the Buccaneers (Cade Otton), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:52 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Tacario Davis), 12 yards, wiping out the play | +11% TB +4.8 pts |
| Q2 12:46 | Defensive Offside on the Bengals (Jonathan Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.1 pts |
| Q2 3:11 | Defensive Offside on the Bengals (Tedarrell Slaton), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:43 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Tykee Smith), 4 yards | 0% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:46 | Defensive Offside on the Bengals (Jonathan Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TB +2.0 pts |
| Q3 2:16 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bengals (Kyle Dugger), 10 yards | +1% TB +1.0 pts |
| Q3 2:11 | Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Anthony Nelson), 5 yards | +1% CIN +0.2 pts |
| Q4 11:24 | False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:41 | Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 5:23 | Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TB +0.2 pts |
| Q4 5:11 | False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:19 | False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN 0.0 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Elijah Roberts), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.8 pts |
Buccaneers penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Bengals’ chance of winning
As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:23 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +5% TB | TB: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 9:19 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +6% CIN | TB: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 6:29 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Buccaneers fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams | +50% CIN | TB: Turnover |
| 4 | Q1 5:38 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedThe Buccaneers fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% CIN | TB: Turnover |
| 5 | Q2 12:52 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Tacario Davis), 12 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · no snap history yet | +11% TB | TB: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 2:24 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedThe Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BuccaneersSpecial teams | +30% TB | CIN: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 1:37 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% CIN | CIN: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 14:15 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +4% TB | CIN: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Shemar Stewart (CIN DE), out · 0.3 pts
- Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Buccaneers 50% · Bengals 50%
- Final margin
- Bengals by 6
- Luck in points
- 6.0 for the Bengals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Buccaneers 4% · Bengals 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Buccaneers · 
Bengals
More from Week 1 2026
- Patriots at Seahawks SEA 13–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- 49ers vs Rams SF 27–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- Falcons at Steelers PIT 20–13 · replay 74% for the winner
- Ravens at Colts BAL 41–23 · replay 86% for the winner
- Bills at Texans BUF 36–31 · replay 93% for the winner
- Bears at Panthers CHI 59–37 · replay 76% for the winner
- Browns at Jaguars JAX 34–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Saints at Lions DET 31–30 · replay 41% for the winner
- Jets at Titans NYJ 23–10 · replay 81% for the winner
- Cardinals at Chargers ARI 26–14 · replay 49% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings MIN 39–22 · replay 45% for the winner
- Dolphins at Raiders LV 27–13 · replay 45% for the winner
- Commanders at Eagles PHI 24–22 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants NYG 28–20 · replay 15% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 31–10 · replay 86% for the winner