luckadjusted

Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026

Ravens at Colts, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Colts 41–23, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 14:10 left): the Colts converted 3rd & 3, worth 8 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 41
Indianapolis Colts 23

September 13, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +14 Ravens about even · −14 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 9, Colts win 1.

  1. 1 BAL 58 IND 26
  2. 2 BAL 45 IND 20
  3. 3 BAL 38 IND 19
  4. 4 BAL 26 IND 10
  5. 5 BAL 34 IND 20
  6. 6 BAL 41 IND 30
  7. 7 BAL 30 IND 22
  8. 8 BAL 25 IND 20
  9. 9 BAL 33 IND 30
  10. 10 BAL 27 IND 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 86% of them, Colts 14%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+47.8%
Ravens by 9–1620.7%
Ravens by 1–817.2%
Level after regulation1.8%
Colts by 1–87.7%
Colts by 9–163.6%
Colts by 17+1.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.0 points to the Colts: the final margin was Ravens by 18, without the luck Ravens by 22. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Loop, 57 yds made · 62% expected
  • S. Shrader, 58 yds made · 63% expected
  • T. Loop, 45 yds made · 81% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 10 for 86 yards, Colts 4 for 29 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:25 False Start on the Ravens (Mark Andrews), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.8 pts
Q1 6:20 Chop Block on the Ravens, 15 yards +5% IND +3.0 pts
Q1 4:05 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Adetomiwa Adebawore), 10 yards +1% BAL +0.9 pts
Q1 0:58 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.6 pts
Q2 13:00 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% IND +3.0 pts
Q2 8:30 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +2% IND +0.9 pts
Q2 5:04 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Laquon Treadwell), 10 yards +1% BAL +0.8 pts
Q2 1:57 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% IND +2.8 pts
Q3 14:08 Illegal Shift on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% IND +1.6 pts
Q3 7:55 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Ravens (Ethan Burke), 10 yards 0% IND +0.9 pts
Q3 4:55 False Start on the Ravens (Justice Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.4 pts
Q3 4:31 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 4 yards +1% BAL +0.4 pts
Q4 12:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Malaki Starks), 11 yards 0% IND +0.8 pts
Q4 3:27 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.5 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:10 The Colts converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:37 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:38 The Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% BAL IND: Punt
4 Q1 6:20 Chop Block on the Ravens, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% IND IND: Punt
5 Q1 5:54 The Ravens converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q1 0:38 The Ravens converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 2:18 The Colts converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% IND IND: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:57 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% IND IND: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Teddye Buchanan (BAL LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 100% · Colts 0%

Final margin
Ravens by 18
Luck in points
4.0 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 22.0
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 86% · Colts 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Ravens · Colts

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