2026 season · in progress
Indianapolis Colts, 2026: game by game
The Colts went 0–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 0.6 wins. Luck cost them 0.6: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–1.
Every game
How often the Colts win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Colts’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.39 | +14.9 |
| Kicks | +0.13 | +2.1 |
| Injuries | +0.04 | +1.7 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.11 | −0.9 |