luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Indianapolis Colts, 2026: game by game

The Colts went 0–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 0.6 wins. Luck cost them 0.6: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–1.

Every game

How often the Colts win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Ravens L 23–41 14% −14
Week 2 @ Chiefs L 30–33 47% −47

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Colts’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Judgment calls+0.39+14.9
Kicks+0.13+2.1
Injuries+0.04+1.7
3rd & 4th downs−0.11−0.9