luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Colts at Chiefs, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Colts 33–30, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 67% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (QOT, 5:13 left): H. Butker made 31-yard field goal, worth 39 points of win probability to the Chiefs. The biggest single swing (QOT, 3:15 left): S. Shrader made 38-yard field goal.

Final (OT)

Indianapolis Colts 30
Kansas City Chiefs 33

September 20, 2026 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −6

Luck index +47 Chiefs lucky · −47 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 5, Chiefs win 5.

  1. 1 IND 41 KC 17
  2. 2 IND 31 KC 16
  3. 3 IND 33 KC 24
  4. 4 IND 41 KC 37
  5. 5 IND 33 KC 31
  6. 6 IND 17 KC 19
  7. 7 IND 17 KC 22
  8. 8 IND 10 KC 19
  9. 9 IND 13 KC 27
  10. 10 IND 20 KC 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 47% of them, Chiefs 53%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+9.9%
Colts by 9–1613.0%
Colts by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation5.7%
Chiefs by 1–823.9%
Chiefs by 9–1614.2%
Chiefs by 17+10.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.7 points to the Colts: the final margin was Chiefs by 3, without the luck Chiefs by 14.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 46 yds made · 81% expected
  • S. Shrader, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • H. Butker, 51 yds missed · 72% expected
  • S. Shrader, 49 yds made · 72% expected
  • H. Butker, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • H. Butker, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • S. Shrader, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • H. Butker, 40 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 5 for 30 yards, Chiefs 8 for 86 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:08 False Start on the Colts (Jonathan Taylor), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.7 pts
Q1 9:34 Roughing the Passer on the Chiefs (Jaden Hicks), 2 yards +2% IND +0.6 pts
Q1 6:09 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Colts (JT Tuimoloau), 10 yards +2% KC +0.8 pts
Q2 14:48 Illegal Formation on the Chiefs (Christian Roland-Wallace), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.5 pts
Q2 11:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Kristian Fulton), 26 yards +10% IND +2.0 pts
Q2 10:26 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% KC +0.5 pts
Q2 10:26 False Start on the Colts (Laquon Treadwell), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC +0.4 pts
Q2 8:55 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +6% IND +1.6 pts
Q2 1:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Kristian Fulton), 23 yards +7% IND +1.4 pts
Q3 0:48 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +2% IND +0.8 pts
Q4 10:01 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chiefs (George Karlaftis III), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +1.2 pts
QOT 6:49 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +8% IND +0.8 pts
QOT 3:15 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.1 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 10:38 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +22% KC KC: Touchdown
2 QOT 8:38 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +21% KC KC: Field goal
3 QOT 8:00 T. Kelce dropped a catchable passDrops · 29 drops on 512 catchable balls before this +13% IND KC: Field goal
4 QOT 5:18 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +25% IND KC: Field goal
5 QOT 5:13 The game turned hereH. Butker made 31-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +39% KC KC: Field goal
6 QOT 3:15 S. Shrader made 38-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for himDelay of Game on the Colts, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +45% IND IND: Field goal
7 QOT 1:30 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +36% KC KC: Field goal
8 QOT 0:01 H. Butker made 40-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +13% KC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chamarri Conner (KC DB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Josh Simmons (KC T), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 3% · Chiefs 97%

Final margin
Chiefs by 3
Luck in points
11.7 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 14.7
Replay with same day's form
Colts 47% · Chiefs 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Colts · Chiefs

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