2026 season · in progress
Kansas City Chiefs, 2026: game by game
The Chiefs went 2–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–0.
Every game
How often the Chiefs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Broncos | W 31–10 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 2 | vs Colts | W 33–30 | 53% | +47 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chiefs’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.22 | +4.4 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.10 | +3.1 |
| Injuries | −0.08 | −2.9 |
| Drops | −0.10 | −0.7 |
| Kicks | −0.15 | −4.0 |
| Judgment calls | −0.23 | −6.4 |