luckadjusted

2026 NFL season · September 17, 2026–September 21

Week 2 2026: who deserved to win

4 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Saints beat the Ravens 24–17 in a game they win 13% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 2 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Browns 23–19 @ Buccaneers 26% 43% Coin flip
Saints 24–17 @ Ravens 26% 13% Lucky
Raiders 26–14 @ Chargers 32% 69% Deserved
Vikings 9–3 @ Bears 37% 55% Coin flip
Bengals 20–6 @ Texans 41% 44% Coin flip

Week 2 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Saints W 24–17 @ Ravens 13% +87
2 Packers W 20–17 @ Jets 34% +66
3 Browns W 23–19 @ Buccaneers 43% +57
4 Bengals W 20–6 @ Texans 44% +56
5 Chiefs W 33–30 vs Colts 53% +47
6 Vikings W 9–3 @ Bears 55% +45
7 Broncos W 20–13 vs Jaguars 60% +40
8 Raiders W 26–14 @ Chargers 69% +31
9 Seahawks W 31–7 @ Cardinals 70% +30
10 Eagles W 24–20 @ Titans 74% +26
11 Cowboys W 37–20 vs Commanders 79% +21
12 Panthers W 34–3 @ Falcons 87% +13
13 Patriots W 20–3 vs Steelers 90% +10
14 Rams W 28–6 vs Giants 94% +6
15 Bills W 41–31 vs Lions 94% +6
16 49ers W 35–13 vs Dolphins 99% +1
17 Dolphins L 13–35 @ 49ers 1% −1
18 Lions L 31–41 @ Bills 6% −6
19 Giants L 6–28 @ Rams 6% −6
20 Steelers L 3–20 @ Patriots 10% −10
21 Falcons L 3–34 vs Panthers 13% −13
22 Commanders L 20–37 @ Cowboys 21% −21
23 Titans L 20–24 vs Eagles 26% −26
24 Cardinals L 7–31 vs Seahawks 30% −30
25 Chargers L 14–26 vs Raiders 31% −31
26 Jaguars L 13–20 @ Broncos 40% −40
27 Bears L 3–9 vs Vikings 45% −45
28 Colts L 30–33 @ Chiefs 47% −47
29 Texans L 6–20 vs Bengals 56% −56
30 Buccaneers L 19–23 vs Browns 57% −57
31 Jets L 17–20 vs Packers 66% −66
32 Ravens L 17–24 vs Saints 87% −87