2026 season · in progress
Houston Texans, 2026: game by game
The Texans went 0–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 0.6 wins. Luck cost them 0.6: the 5th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–1.
Every game
How often the Texans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Bills | L 31–36 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 2 | vs Bengals | L 6–20 | 56% | −56 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Texans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.09 | +0.1 |
| Drops | +0.04 | +4.2 |
| Injuries | −0.05 | −1.9 |
| Kicks | −0.15 | −4.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.17 | −2.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.32 | −4.7 |