2026 NFL season · after Week 3
Every upset of 2026, and which were deserved
10 upsets in 2026 so far, 4 of them deserved. The biggest: the Cardinals beat the Chargers 26–14 (Week 1) as 26% underdogs, and it was a coin flip on the day.
An upset is a win by the underdog of the closing betting line. The line says 12 of these 33 games should have gone to the underdog; 10 did. “Deserved” when the winner takes 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form; “lucky” under 40% (2 of 10).
| # | Game | When | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardinals 26, Chargers 14 | 2026 Week 1 · Sep 13, 2026 | 26% | 49% | Coin flip |
| 2 | Browns 23, Buccaneers 19 | 2026 Week 2 · Sep 20, 2026 | 26% | 43% | Coin flip |
| 3 | Saints 24, Ravens 17 | 2026 Week 2 · Sep 20, 2026 | 26% | 13% | Lucky |
| 4 | Raiders 26, Chargers 14 | 2026 Week 2 · Sep 20, 2026 | 32% | 69% | Deserved |
| 5 | Vikings 9, Bears 3 | 2026 Week 2 · Sep 20, 2026 | 37% | 55% | Coin flip |
| 6 | Falcons 35, Packers 14 | 2026 Week 3 · Sep 24, 2026 | 37% | 90% | Deserved |
| 7 | 49ers 27, Rams 7 | 2026 Week 1 · Sep 10, 2026 | 40% | 89% | Deserved |
| 8 | Giants 28, Cowboys 20 | 2026 Week 1 · Sep 13, 2026 | 41% | 15% | Lucky |
| 9 | Bengals 20, Texans 6 | 2026 Week 2 · Sep 20, 2026 | 41% | 44% | Coin flip |
| 10 | Jets 23, Titans 10 | 2026 Week 1 · Sep 13, 2026 | 46% | 81% | Deserved |
Upsets week by week
Other seasons: 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019
The biggest upsets since 2019 · 2026 luck rankings · Do unlucky teams cover the spread?