2025 NFL season · final
Every upset of 2025, and which were deserved
97 upsets in 2025, 40 of them deserved. The biggest: the Panthers beat the Packers 16–13 (Week 9) as 18% underdogs, and got lucky.
An upset is a win by the underdog of the closing betting line. The line says 100 of these 284 games should have gone to the underdog; 97 did. “Deserved” when the winner takes 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form; “lucky” under 40% (32 of 97).
| # | Game | When | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers 16, Packers 13 | 2025 Week 9 · Nov 2, 2025 | 18% | 27% | Lucky |
| 2 | Panthers 31, Rams 28 | 2025 Week 13 · Nov 30, 2025 | 23% | 13% | Lucky |
| 3 | Vikings 27, Lions 24 | 2025 Week 9 · Nov 2, 2025 | 24% | 76% | Deserved |
| 4 | Browns 20, Bengals 18 | 2025 Week 18 · Jan 4, 2026 | 24% | 2% | Lucky |
| 5 | 49ers 26, Rams 23 | 2025 Week 5 · Oct 2, 2025 | 26% | 48% | Coin flip |
| 6 | Browns 13, Packers 10 | 2025 Week 3 · Sep 21, 2025 | 26% | 18% | Lucky |
| 7 | Dolphins 30, Bills 13 | 2025 Week 10 · Nov 9, 2025 | 26% | 55% | Coin flip |
| 8 | Patriots 23, Bills 20 | 2025 Week 5 · Oct 5, 2025 | 29% | 38% | Lucky |
| 9 | Titans 22, Cardinals 21 | 2025 Week 5 · Oct 5, 2025 | 29% | 47% | Coin flip |
| 10 | Saints 24, Buccaneers 20 | 2025 Week 14 · Dec 7, 2025 | 29% | 51% | Coin flip |
| 11 | Steelers 29, Lions 24 | 2025 Week 16 · Dec 21, 2025 | 29% | 62% | Deserved |
| 12 | Falcons 27, Rams 24 | 2025 Week 17 · Dec 29, 2025 | 29% | 36% | Lucky |
| 13 | Giants 34, Eagles 17 | 2025 Week 6 · Oct 9, 2025 | 30% | 71% | Deserved |
| 14 | Vikings 23, Lions 10 | 2025 Week 17 · Dec 25, 2025 | 30% | 51% | Coin flip |
| 15 | Dolphins 34, Falcons 10 | 2025 Week 8 · Oct 26, 2025 | 30% | 79% | Deserved |
| 16 | Bengals 32, Ravens 14 | 2025 Week 13 · Nov 27, 2025 | 30% | 48% | Coin flip |
| 17 | Bears 24, Eagles 15 | 2025 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2025 | 30% | 87% | Deserved |
| 18 | Giants 21, Chargers 18 | 2025 Week 4 · Sep 28, 2025 | 33% | 10% | Lucky |
| 19 | Falcons 29, Buccaneers 28 | 2025 Week 15 · Dec 11, 2025 | 33% | 20% | Lucky |
| 20 | 49ers 23, Eagles 19 | 2025 Wild Card · Jan 11, 2026 | 33% | 93% | Deserved |
| 21 | Panthers 30, Falcons 0 | 2025 Week 3 · Sep 21, 2025 | 34% | 50% | Coin flip |
| 22 | Bears 25, Commanders 24 | 2025 Week 6 · Oct 13, 2025 | 34% | 35% | Lucky |
| 23 | Bengals 33, Steelers 31 | 2025 Week 7 · Oct 16, 2025 | 34% | 36% | Lucky |
| 24 | Jets 39, Bengals 38 | 2025 Week 8 · Oct 26, 2025 | 34% | 56% | Coin flip |
| 25 | Saints 17, Panthers 7 | 2025 Week 10 · Nov 9, 2025 | 34% | 69% | Deserved |
| 26 | Texans 23, Bills 19 | 2025 Week 12 · Nov 20, 2025 | 34% | 36% | Lucky |
| 27 | Steelers 27, Ravens 22 | 2025 Week 14 · Dec 7, 2025 | 34% | 38% | Lucky |
| 28 | Chargers 16, Chiefs 13 | 2025 Week 15 · Dec 14, 2025 | 34% | 53% | Coin flip |
| 29 | Vikings 34, Cowboys 26 | 2025 Week 15 · Dec 14, 2025 | 34% | 29% | Lucky |
| 30 | Dolphins 20, Buccaneers 17 | 2025 Week 17 · Dec 28, 2025 | 34% | 48% | Coin flip |
| 31 | Lions 38, Ravens 30 | 2025 Week 3 · Sep 22, 2025 | 37% | 63% | Deserved |
| 32 | Panthers 30, Falcons 27 | 2025 Week 11 · Nov 16, 2025 | 37% | 59% | Coin flip |
| 33 | Texans 20, Chiefs 10 | 2025 Week 14 · Dec 7, 2025 | 37% | 11% | Lucky |
| 34 | Titans 31, Browns 29 | 2025 Week 14 · Dec 7, 2025 | 37% | 34% | Lucky |
| 35 | Browns 13, Steelers 6 | 2025 Week 17 · Dec 28, 2025 | 37% | 52% | Coin flip |
| 36 | Steelers 26, Ravens 24 | 2025 Week 18 · Jan 4, 2026 | 37% | 40% | Coin flip |
| 37 | Jaguars 31, Chiefs 28 | 2025 Week 5 · Oct 6, 2025 | 40% | 26% | Lucky |
| 38 | Falcons 24, Bills 14 | 2025 Week 6 · Oct 13, 2025 | 40% | 39% | Lucky |
| 39 | Steelers 27, Colts 20 | 2025 Week 9 · Nov 2, 2025 | 40% | 22% | Lucky |
| 40 | Broncos 22, Chiefs 19 | 2025 Week 11 · Nov 16, 2025 | 40% | 42% | Coin flip |
| 41 | Cowboys 31, Chiefs 28 | 2025 Week 13 · Nov 27, 2025 | 40% | 61% | Deserved |
| 42 | Titans 26, Chiefs 9 | 2025 Week 16 · Dec 21, 2025 | 40% | 65% | Deserved |
| 43 | Raiders 14, Chiefs 12 | 2025 Week 18 · Jan 4, 2026 | 40% | 55% | Coin flip |
| 44 | Falcons 22, Vikings 6 | 2025 Week 2 · Sep 14, 2025 | 40% | 87% | Deserved |
| 45 | Seahawks 31, Steelers 17 | 2025 Week 2 · Sep 14, 2025 | 40% | 87% | Deserved |
| 46 | Jaguars 26, 49ers 21 | 2025 Week 4 · Sep 28, 2025 | 40% | 32% | Lucky |
| 47 | Broncos 21, Eagles 17 | 2025 Week 5 · Oct 5, 2025 | 40% | 90% | Deserved |
| 48 | Buccaneers 38, Seahawks 35 | 2025 Week 5 · Oct 5, 2025 | 40% | 34% | Lucky |
| 49 | Cardinals 27, Cowboys 17 | 2025 Week 9 · Nov 3, 2025 | 40% | 61% | Deserved |
| 50 | Jaguars 34, Broncos 20 | 2025 Week 16 · Dec 21, 2025 | 40% | 33% | Lucky |
| 51 | Patriots 28, Ravens 24 | 2025 Week 16 · Dec 21, 2025 | 40% | 67% | Deserved |
| 52 | Lions 19, Bears 16 | 2025 Week 18 · Jan 4, 2026 | 40% | 82% | Deserved |
| 53 | Chargers 27, Chiefs 21 | 2025 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2025 | 41% | 86% | Deserved |
| 54 | Panthers 30, Cowboys 27 | 2025 Week 6 · Oct 12, 2025 | 41% | 84% | Deserved |
| 55 | Bears 19, Vikings 17 | 2025 Week 11 · Nov 16, 2025 | 41% | 80% | Deserved |
| 56 | Jaguars 35, Chargers 6 | 2025 Week 11 · Nov 16, 2025 | 41% | 94% | Deserved |
| 57 | Browns 24, Raiders 10 | 2025 Week 12 · Nov 23, 2025 | 41% | 58% | Coin flip |
| 58 | Cowboys 24, Eagles 21 | 2025 Week 12 · Nov 23, 2025 | 41% | 89% | Deserved |
| 59 | Jets 27, Falcons 24 | 2025 Week 13 · Nov 30, 2025 | 41% | 11% | Lucky |
| 60 | Texans 20, Colts 16 | 2025 Week 13 · Nov 30, 2025 | 41% | 36% | Lucky |
| 61 | Panthers 23, Buccaneers 20 | 2025 Week 16 · Dec 21, 2025 | 41% | 53% | Coin flip |
| 62 | Eagles 13, Bills 12 | 2025 Week 17 · Dec 28, 2025 | 41% | 16% | Lucky |
| 63 | Giants 34, Cowboys 17 | 2025 Week 18 · Jan 4, 2026 | 41% | 18% | Lucky |
| 64 | Commanders 24, Eagles 17 | 2025 Week 18 · Jan 4, 2026 | 41% | 39% | Lucky |
| 65 | Raiders 20, Patriots 13 | 2025 Week 1 · Sep 7, 2025 | 43% | 90% | Deserved |
| 66 | Colts 29, Broncos 28 | 2025 Week 2 · Sep 14, 2025 | 43% | 67% | Deserved |
| 67 | Buccaneers 20, Texans 19 | 2025 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2025 | 43% | 77% | Deserved |
| 68 | Chiefs 37, Ravens 20 | 2025 Week 4 · Sep 28, 2025 | 43% | 37% | Lucky |
| 69 | Steelers 24, Vikings 21 | 2025 Week 4 · Sep 28, 2025 | 43% | 75% | Deserved |
| 70 | Commanders 27, Chargers 10 | 2025 Week 5 · Oct 5, 2025 | 43% | 82% | Deserved |
| 71 | Colts 38, Chargers 24 | 2025 Week 7 · Oct 19, 2025 | 43% | 56% | Coin flip |
| 72 | Bills 28, Chiefs 21 | 2025 Week 9 · Nov 2, 2025 | 43% | 87% | Deserved |
| 73 | Patriots 28, Buccaneers 23 | 2025 Week 10 · Nov 9, 2025 | 43% | 85% | Deserved |
| 74 | Packers 31, Lions 24 | 2025 Week 13 · Nov 27, 2025 | 43% | 55% | Coin flip |
| 75 | Jaguars 36, Colts 19 | 2025 Week 14 · Dec 7, 2025 | 43% | 62% | Deserved |
| 76 | Saints 20, Panthers 17 | 2025 Week 15 · Dec 14, 2025 | 43% | 67% | Deserved |
| 77 | Commanders 29, Giants 21 | 2025 Week 15 · Dec 14, 2025 | 43% | 42% | Coin flip |
| 78 | Ravens 41, Packers 24 | 2025 Week 17 · Dec 27, 2025 | 43% | 33% | Lucky |
| 79 | Bears 31, Packers 27 | 2025 Wild Card · Jan 10, 2026 | 43% | 47% | Coin flip |
| 80 | Bills 41, Ravens 40 | 2025 Week 1 · Sep 7, 2025 | 46% | 65% | Deserved |
| 81 | Patriots 33, Dolphins 27 | 2025 Week 2 · Sep 14, 2025 | 46% | 28% | Lucky |
| 82 | Bears 31, Cowboys 14 | 2025 Week 3 · Sep 21, 2025 | 46% | 50% | Coin flip |
| 83 | Bears 25, Raiders 24 | 2025 Week 4 · Sep 28, 2025 | 46% | 18% | Lucky |
| 84 | Cowboys 37, Jets 22 | 2025 Week 5 · Oct 5, 2025 | 46% | 92% | Deserved |
| 85 | Panthers 27, Dolphins 24 | 2025 Week 5 · Oct 5, 2025 | 46% | 79% | Deserved |
| 86 | Panthers 13, Jets 6 | 2025 Week 7 · Oct 19, 2025 | 46% | 85% | Deserved |
| 87 | Broncos 18, Texans 15 | 2025 Week 9 · Nov 2, 2025 | 46% | 73% | Deserved |
| 88 | Jets 27, Browns 20 | 2025 Week 10 · Nov 9, 2025 | 46% | 45% | Coin flip |
| 89 | Texans 36, Jaguars 29 | 2025 Week 10 · Nov 9, 2025 | 46% | 94% | Deserved |
| 90 | Eagles 10, Packers 7 | 2025 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2025 | 46% | 36% | Lucky |
| 91 | Falcons 24, Saints 10 | 2025 Week 12 · Nov 23, 2025 | 46% | 94% | Deserved |
| 92 | Vikings 31, Commanders 0 | 2025 Week 14 · Dec 7, 2025 | 46% | 68% | Deserved |
| 93 | Chargers 22, Eagles 19 | 2025 Week 14 · Dec 8, 2025 | 46% | 51% | Coin flip |
| 94 | Broncos 34, Packers 26 | 2025 Week 15 · Dec 14, 2025 | 46% | 8% | Lucky |
| 95 | Chargers 34, Cowboys 17 | 2025 Week 16 · Dec 21, 2025 | 46% | 66% | Deserved |
| 96 | Texans 20, Chargers 16 | 2025 Week 17 · Dec 27, 2025 | 46% | 65% | Deserved |
| 97 | Bills 27, Jaguars 24 | 2025 Wild Card · Jan 11, 2026 | 46% | 44% | Coin flip |
Upsets week by week
| Week | Upsets | Deserved | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| Week 2 | 5 | 4 | 16 |
| Week 3 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| Week 4 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| Week 5 | 9 | 4 | 14 |
| Week 6 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| Week 7 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| Week 8 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| Week 9 | 6 | 4 | 14 |
| Week 10 | 6 | 3 | 14 |
| Week 11 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| Week 12 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| Week 13 | 7 | 2 | 16 |
| Week 14 | 7 | 2 | 14 |
| Week 15 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| Week 16 | 6 | 4 | 16 |
| Week 17 | 7 | 1 | 16 |
| Week 18 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| Wild Card | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| Divisional round | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Conference championships | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Super Bowl | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Other seasons: 2026 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019
The biggest upsets since 2019 · 2025 luck rankings · Do unlucky teams cover the spread?