Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025
Eagles at Cowboys, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
The Cowboys beat the Eagles 24–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: drops alone were worth 30 points of win probability to the Eagles.
An off day for the Eagles: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Eagles were 59% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 8:08 left): Illegal Use of Hands on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 15 points of win probability to the Cowboys. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:03 left): B. Aubrey made 42-yard field goal.
Final
 Philadelphia Eagles | 21 |
|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Cowboys about even · −11 Eagles
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eagles win 1, Cowboys win 9.
- 1 PHI 20 DAL 13
- 2 PHI 12 DAL 14
- 3 PHI 37 DAL 41
- 4 PHI 24 DAL 32
- 5 PHI 19 DAL 30
- 6 PHI 20 DAL 35
- 7 PHI 24 DAL 42
- 8 PHI 19 DAL 40
- 9 PHI 27 DAL 52
- 10 PHI 10 DAL 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Eagles
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
45 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles offenseEPA per play gained | +0.14 | +0.12 | better by 0.02 |
| Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.16 | +0.02 | worse by 0.14 |
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | +0.16 | +0.13 | better by 0.03 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.18 | better by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eagles win 11% of them, Cowboys 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eagles by 17+ | 0.8% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 6.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 17.8% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 21.1% |
| Cowboys by 17+ | 49.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Aubrey, 51 yds missed · 83% expected
- J. Elliott, 56 yds missed · 66% expected
- B. Aubrey, 42 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Eagles 14 for 96 yards, Cowboys 8 for 69 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:41 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Shemar James), 10 yards | +1% PHI +1.0 pts |
| Q1 8:34 | Illegal Contact on the Eagles (Nakobe Dean), 5 yards | +1% DAL +0.3 pts |
| Q1 6:27 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.4 pts |
| Q1 4:45 | Roughing the Kicker on the Cowboys (Marist Liufau), 15 yards | +9% PHI +2.9 pts |
| Q1 3:57 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Jadeveon Clowney), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PHI +0.3 pts |
| Q2 14:15 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | 0% DAL +1.0 pts |
| Q2 9:44 | False Start on the Cowboys (Jake Ferguson), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI +0.4 pts |
| Q2 5:16 | False Start on the Cowboys, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 3:35 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:07 | Illegal Motion on the Eagles (Sydney Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.1 pts |
| Q2 1:26 | Tripping on the Cowboys, 15 yards | 0% PHI +1.4 pts |
| Q3 14:13 | Illegal Formation on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% DAL +2.7 pts |
| Q3 11:45 | Running Into the Kicker on the Eagles (Cameron Latu), 5 yards | +1% DAL +0.4 pts |
| Q3 11:38 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles (Joshua Uche), 10 yards | +1% DAL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:13 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Quinyon Mitchell), 6 yards | +1% DAL +1.1 pts |
| Q3 2:12 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Kelee Ringo), 10 yards | +2% DAL +1.0 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (DeVonta Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% DAL +1.7 pts |
| Q4 14:41 | False Start on the Eagles (A.J. Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.3 pts |
| Q4 8:08 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +15% DAL +2.7 pts |
| Q4 6:19 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards | +4% PHI +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:52 | Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Eagles (Kelee Ringo), 5 yards | +2% PHI +0.1 pts |
| Q4 1:44 | Invalid Fair Catch Signal on the Cowboys (KaVontae Turpin), 5 yards | +8% PHI +0.5 pts |
Eagles penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Cowboys’ chance of winning
As low as 6% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:45 | Roughing the Kicker on the Cowboys (Marist Liufau), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1042 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 | +9% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q4 8:08 | The game turned hereIllegal Use of Hands on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +15% DAL | DAL: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 6:08 | R. Flournoy dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 29 catchable balls before this | +9% PHI | DAL: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 5:25 | The Eagles fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +15% DAL | PHI: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 3:50 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedC. Lamb dropped a catchable passDrops · 24 drops on 456 catchable balls before this | +15% PHI | DAL: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 3:46 | The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +12% PHI | DAL: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 2:00 | The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +14% DAL | PHI: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:03 | B. Aubrey made 42-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +16% DAL | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Juanyeh Thomas (DAL S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jalen Tolbert (DAL WR), out · 0.3 pts
- Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.0 pts
- Charley Hughlett (PHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eagles 15% · Cowboys 85%
- Final margin
- Cowboys by 3
- Luck in points
- 5.8 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 8.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Eagles 11% · Cowboys 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Eagles · 
Cowboys
More from Week 12 2025
- Bills at Texans HOU 23–19 · replay 36% for the winner
- Colts at Chiefs KC 23–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers GB 23–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Patriots at Bengals NE 26–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- Giants at Lions DET 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Jets at Ravens BAL 23–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Steelers at Bears CHI 31–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Seahawks at Titans SEA 30–24 · replay 98% for the winner
- Browns at Raiders CLE 24–10 · replay 58% for the winner
- Jaguars at Cardinals JAX 27–24 · replay 60% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints ATL 24–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Rams LA 34–7 · replay 95% for the winner
- Panthers at 49ers SF 20–9 · replay 82% for the winner