luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · November 20, 2025–November 24

Week 12 2025: who deserved to win

2 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bears beat the Steelers 31–28 in a game they win 31% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 12 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Texans 23–19 vs Bills 34% 36% Lucky
Browns 24–10 @ Raiders 41% 58% Coin flip
Cowboys 24–21 vs Eagles 41% 89% Deserved
Falcons 24–10 @ Saints 46% 94% Deserved

Week 12 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bears W 31–28 vs Steelers 31% +69
2 Texans W 23–19 vs Bills 36% +64
3 Browns W 24–10 @ Raiders 58% +42
4 Jaguars W 27–24 @ Cardinals 60% +40
5 Lions W 34–27 vs Giants 75% +25
6 Ravens W 23–10 vs Jets 80% +20
7 Patriots W 26–20 @ Bengals 82% +18
8 49ers W 20–9 vs Panthers 82% +18
9 Chiefs W 23–20 vs Colts 85% +15
10 Cowboys W 24–21 vs Eagles 89% +11
11 Falcons W 24–10 @ Saints 94% +6
12 Rams W 34–7 vs Buccaneers 95% +5
13 Seahawks W 30–24 @ Titans 98% +2
14 Packers W 23–6 vs Vikings 98% +2
15 Vikings L 6–23 @ Packers 2% −2
16 Titans L 24–30 vs Seahawks 2% −2
17 Buccaneers L 7–34 @ Rams 5% −5
18 Saints L 10–24 vs Falcons 6% −6
19 Eagles L 21–24 @ Cowboys 11% −11
20 Colts L 20–23 @ Chiefs 15% −15
21 Panthers L 9–20 @ 49ers 18% −18
22 Bengals L 20–26 vs Patriots 18% −18
23 Jets L 10–23 @ Ravens 20% −20
24 Giants L 27–34 @ Lions 25% −25
25 Cardinals L 24–27 vs Jaguars 40% −40
26 Raiders L 10–24 vs Browns 42% −42
27 Bills L 19–23 @ Texans 64% −64
28 Steelers L 28–31 @ Bears 69% −69