2025 season · final

New York Jets, 2025: game by game

The Jets went 3–14 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.9 wins. Luck cost them 0.9: the 15th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5.

Every game

How often the Jets win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Steelers	L 32–34	88%	−88
Week 2	vs Bills	L 10–30	2%	−2
Week 3	@ Buccaneers	L 27–29	37%	−37
Week 4	@ Dolphins	L 21–27	69%	−69
Week 5	vs Cowboys	L 22–37	8%	−8
Week 6	vs Broncos	L 11–13	15%	−15
Week 7	vs Panthers	L 6–13	15%	−15
Week 8	@ Bengals	W 39–38	56%	+44
Week 10	vs Browns	W 27–20	45%	+55
Week 11	@ Patriots	L 14–27	3%	−3
Week 12	@ Ravens	L 10–23	20%	−20
Week 13	vs Falcons	W 27–24	11%	+89
Week 14	vs Dolphins	L 10–34	3%	−3
Week 15	@ Jaguars	L 20–48	3%	−3
Week 16	@ Saints	L 6–29	14%	−14
Week 17	vs Patriots	L 10–42	0%	0
Week 18	@ Bills	L 8–35	0%	0

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −88 vs PIT

Wk 2 −2 vs BUF

Wk 3 −37 @ TB

Wk 4 −69 @ MIA

Wk 5 −8 vs DAL

Wk 6 −15 vs DEN

Wk 7 −15 vs CAR

Wk 8 +44 @ CIN

Wk 10 +55 vs CLE

Wk 11 −3 @ NE

Wk 12 −20 @ BAL

Wk 13 +89 vs ATL

Wk 14 −3 vs MIA

Wk 15 −3 @ JAX

Wk 16 −14 @ NO

Wk 17 0 vs NE

Wk 18 0 @ BUF

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jets’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Drops	+0.68	−4.9
Kicks	+0.06	+6.1
Judgment calls	+0.05	+17.1
Rest	−0.03	−0.6
Injuries	−0.07	−5.1
Fumble bounces	−0.35	−14.2
3rd & 4th downs	−0.42	−8.7