luckadjusted

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

Bills at Jets, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Jets 30–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 67% favorites.

Final

Buffalo Bills 30
New York Jets 10

September 14, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Bills −6

Luck index +2 Bills about even · −2 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 10, Jets win 0.

  1. 1 BUF 44 NYJ 7
  2. 2 BUF 30 NYJ 0
  3. 3 BUF 38 NYJ 13
  4. 4 BUF 24 NYJ 3
  5. 5 BUF 21 NYJ 3
  6. 6 BUF 26 NYJ 10
  7. 7 BUF 23 NYJ 9
  8. 8 BUF 18 NYJ 7
  9. 9 BUF 17 NYJ 10
  10. 10 BUF 13 NYJ 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 98% of them, Jets 2%. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+75.9%
Bills by 9–1616.2%
Bills by 1–85.9%
Level after regulation0.4%
Jets by 1–81.2%
Jets by 9–160.2%
Jets by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to the Jets: the final margin was Bills by 20, without the luck Bills by 21. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Prater, 52 yds made · 72% expected
  • N. Folk, 51 yds made · 76% expected
  • M. Prater, 33 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 6 for 69 yards, Jets 5 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:44 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Michael Carter II), 5 yards +3% BUF +1.1 pts
Q1 9:05 Intentional Grounding on the Bills (Josh Allen), 12 yards +3% NYJ +1.0 pts
Q1 8:58 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Micheal Clemons), 15 yards +7% BUF +2.1 pts
Q2 14:57 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Tony Adams), 5 yards +3% BUF +1.5 pts
Q2 4:21 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Javon Solomon), 10 yards +1% NYJ +1.1 pts
Q2 2:48 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Josh Palmer), 10 yards +2% NYJ +1.1 pts
Q2 1:03 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Keon Coleman), 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% NYJ +2.2 pts
Q3 3:14 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 5 yards 0% BUF +0.8 pts
Q4 13:06 Intentional Grounding on the Bills (Josh Allen), 12 yards 0% NYJ +1.0 pts
Q4 12:03 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Cole Bishop), 15 yards 0% NYJ +1.7 pts
Q4 12:03 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.7 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:25 The Bills converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:05 Intentional Grounding on the Bills (Josh Allen), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 7299 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +3% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
3 Q1 8:58 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Micheal Clemons), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1836 snaps before, position avg 1 per 373 +7% BUF BUF: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:24 The Jets fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% BUF NYJ: Punt
5 Q1 2:44 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 15% expectedG. Wilson dropped a catchable passDrops · 12 drops on 333 catchable balls before this +7% BUF NYJ: Punt
6 Q1 1:08 The Bills converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% BUF BUF: Field goal
7 Q2 15:00 D. Knox dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 122 catchable balls before this +4% NYJ BUF: Field goal
8 Q2 14:06 M. Prater made 52-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 49 of 67 from 45+ before +6% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Taron Johnson (BUF CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tyler Bass (BUF K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tylan Grable (BUF T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • DeWayne Carter (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 100% · Jets 0%

Final margin
Bills by 20
Luck in points
1.0 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 21.0
Replay with same day's form
Bills 98% · Jets 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Bills · Jets

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