luckadjusted

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

Giants at Cowboys, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys stole one. They beat the Giants 40–37, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 34 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

The Cowboys won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 63% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:05 left): B. Aubrey made 64-yard field goal, worth 19 points of win probability to the Cowboys. The biggest single swing (Q4, 2:50 left): the Giants converted 4th & 4.

Final (OT)

New York Giants 37
Dallas Cowboys 40

September 14, 2025 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −4.5

Luck index +85 Cowboys very lucky · −85 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 8, Cowboys win 2.

  1. 1 NYG 43 DAL 10
  2. 2 NYG 34 DAL 9
  3. 3 NYG 54 DAL 34
  4. 4 NYG 41 DAL 26
  5. 5 NYG 29 DAL 17
  6. 6 NYG 36 DAL 27
  7. 7 NYG 23 DAL 17
  8. 8 NYG 18 DAL 15
  9. 9 NYG 24 DAL 27
  10. 10 NYG 20 DAL 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Cowboys won on an off day

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%.

45 points apart for the Cowboys: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Giants offenseEPA per play gained +0.26 +0.03 better by 0.23
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed +0.18 +0.12 worse by 0.06
Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained +0.18 +0.08 better by 0.11
Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed +0.26 +0.15 worse by 0.12

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 84% of them, Cowboys 16%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+41.6%
Giants by 9–1622.6%
Giants by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation1.7%
Cowboys by 1–89.1%
Cowboys by 9–163.9%
Cowboys by 17+1.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +14.5 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 3, without the luck Giants by 11.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Gano, 33 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 51 yds made · 82% expected
  • G. Gano, 33 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 44 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 64 yds made · 64% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 46 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 14 for 160 yards, Cowboys 12 for 106 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Swayze Bozeman), 10 yards +3% DAL +0.9 pts
Q1 12:24 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 10 yards +3% DAL +1.1 pts
Q1 8:29 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants, 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% DAL +1.8 pts
Q1 7:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants, 15 yards +4% DAL +1.4 pts
Q1 7:47 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.2 pts
Q1 6:40 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.8 pts
Q1 4:58 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.9 pts
Q1 4:47 False Start on the Giants (Daniel Bellinger), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.5 pts
Q2 3:42 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Abdul Carter), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.2 pts
Q2 3:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 10 yards +2% DAL +1.3 pts
Q2 1:46 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Ryan Flournoy), 10 yards +4% NYG +1.0 pts
Q2 1:01 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% NYG +1.5 pts
Q2 0:01 False Start on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.2 pts
Q3 8:23 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Bobby Okereke), 15 yards +5% DAL +2.1 pts
Q3 7:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 22 yards +9% DAL +1.9 pts
Q3 5:41 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.2 pts
Q3 5:38 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Markquese Bell), 10 yards +1% NYG +0.8 pts
Q3 1:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Paulson Adebo), 23 yards +10% DAL +1.9 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q4 14:13 Illegal Formation on the Cowboys (Markquese Bell), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.4 pts
Q4 12:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 21 yards +11% NYG +1.1 pts
Q4 12:07 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys (Ryan Flournoy), 10 yards +2% NYG +1.0 pts
Q4 9:23 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Roy Robertson-Harris), 15 yards +11% DAL +1.8 pts
QOT 10:00 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Hunter Luepke), 10 yards 0% NYG +0.9 pts
QOT 4:11 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the play +29% NYG +1.5 pts
QOT 3:01 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.3 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 10:25 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedC. Skattebo dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 3 catchable balls before this +14% DAL NYG: Field goal
2 Q4 2:50 The Giants converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +40% NYG NYG: Touchdown
3 Q4 0:19 The Cowboys got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% DAL DAL: Field goal
4 Q4 0:05 The game turned hereB. Aubrey made 64-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 37 of 40 from 45+ before +19% DAL DAL: Punt
5 QOT 7:46 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% DAL DAL: Punt
6 QOT 7:02 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +15% NYG DAL: Punt
7 QOT 4:11 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 15 flags in 2745 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +29% NYG NYG: Turnover
8 QOT 2:09 The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +24% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DaRon Bland (DAL CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Josh Butler (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • DeMarvion Overshown (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Micah McFadden (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Rakeem Nunez-Roches (NYG NT), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 91% · Cowboys 9%

Final margin
Cowboys by 3
Luck in points
14.5 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 11.5
Replay with same day's form
Giants 84% · Cowboys 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Giants · Cowboys

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