2025 season · final

New York Giants, 2025: game by game

The Giants went 4–13 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.2 wins. Luck cost them 2.2: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–7.

Every game

How often the Giants win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Commanders	L 6–21	1%	−1
Week 2	@ Cowboys	L 37–40	85%	−85
Week 3	vs Chiefs	L 9–22	37%	−37
Week 4	vs Chargers	W 21–18	10%	+90
Week 5	@ Saints	L 14–26	24%	−24
Week 6	vs Eagles	W 34–17	71%	+29
Week 7	@ Broncos	L 32–33	48%	−48
Week 8	@ Eagles	L 20–38	17%	−17
Week 9	vs 49ers	L 24–34	19%	−19
Week 10	@ Bears	L 20–24	29%	−29
Week 11	vs Packers	L 20–27	17%	−17
Week 12	@ Lions	L 27–34	25%	−25
Week 13	@ Patriots	L 15–33	15%	−15
Week 15	vs Commanders	L 21–29	58%	−58
Week 16	vs Vikings	L 13–16	50%	−50
Week 17	@ Raiders	W 34–10	90%	+10
Week 18	vs Cowboys	W 34–17	18%	+82

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −1 @ WAS

Wk 2 −85 @ DAL

Wk 3 −37 vs KC

Wk 4 +90 vs LAC

Wk 5 −24 @ NO

Wk 6 +29 vs PHI

Wk 7 −48 @ DEN

Wk 8 −17 @ PHI

Wk 9 −19 vs SF

Wk 10 −29 @ CHI

Wk 11 −17 vs GB

Wk 12 −25 @ DET

Wk 13 −15 @ NE

Wk 15 −58 vs WAS

Wk 16 −50 vs MIN

Wk 17 +10 @ LV

Wk 18 +82 vs DAL

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Giants’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+1.17	+26.8
Injuries	+0.17	+4.5
Drops	+0.16	+17.1
Rest	+0.02	+0.8
3rd & 4th downs	−0.37	−4.2
Fumble bounces	−0.37	−4.7
Kicks	−0.48	−3.0