luckadjusted

Week 4 2025 · September 28, 2025

Chargers at Giants, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

The Giants stole one. They beat the Chargers 21–18, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:47 left): the Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 26 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 18
New York Giants 21

September 28, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −6

Luck index +90 Giants very lucky · −90 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 9, Giants win 1.

  1. 1 LAC 35 NYG 3
  2. 2 LAC 35 NYG 13
  3. 3 LAC 34 NYG 16
  4. 4 LAC 16 NYG 0
  5. 5 LAC 37 NYG 24
  6. 6 LAC 20 NYG 10
  7. 7 LAC 27 NYG 20
  8. 8 LAC 21 NYG 17
  9. 9 LAC 24 NYG 22
  10. 10 LAC 12 NYG 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 90% of them, Giants 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+50.0%
Chargers by 9–1621.8%
Chargers by 1–817.7%
Level after regulation1.8%
Giants by 1–85.8%
Giants by 9–162.3%
Giants by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.4 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 3, without the luck Chargers by 5.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. McAtamney, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Dicker, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. McAtamney, 31 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 14 for 107 yards, Giants 8 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.6 pts
Q1 13:12 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Tarheeb Still), 14 yards +2% NYG +1.8 pts
Q1 8:29 Illegal Contact on the Giants (Jevon Holland), 5 yards +3% LAC +1.9 pts
Q1 8:23 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +3% NYG +1.3 pts
Q1 6:08 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Bobby Okereke), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.1 pts
Q1 0:33 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.7 pts
Q2 10:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chargers (Ladd McConkey), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NYG +1.6 pts
Q2 8:14 Intentional Grounding on the Chargers (Justin Herbert), 10 yards +3% NYG +1.6 pts
Q2 8:10 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers, 15 yards +3% NYG +1.4 pts
Q2 6:18 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Troy Dye), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.8 pts
Q2 6:12 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.6 pts
Q2 3:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Donte Jackson), 12 yards +2% NYG +1.8 pts
Q2 0:38 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Abdul Carter), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +14% LAC +4.8 pts
Q3 12:22 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +16% LAC +4.4 pts
Q3 11:00 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Cam Hart), 4 yards +1% NYG +0.3 pts
Q3 8:18 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% NYG +0.6 pts
Q3 7:58 False Start on the Chargers (Oronde Gadsden II), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.4 pts
Q3 7:05 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Nic Jones), 3 yards 0% LAC +0.3 pts
Q3 2:54 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Naquan Jones), 1 yard 0% NYG +0.1 pts
Q4 8:18 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Derwin James), 6 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.6 pts
Q4 4:35 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Deonte Banks), 5 yards +7% LAC +0.8 pts
Q4 2:52 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Da'Shawn Hand), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LAC +0.3 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 8:14 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Chargers (Justin Herbert), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 5668 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +9% NYG LAC: Field goal
2 Q2 0:38 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Abdul Carter), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 174 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +14% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q3 12:22 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +16% LAC LAC: Punt
4 Q3 3:47 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +26% NYG LAC: Touchdown
5 Q4 5:44 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedW. Robinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 207 catchable balls before this +16% LAC NYG: Punt
6 Q4 4:51 The Chargers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +10% LAC LAC: Punt
7 Q4 3:46 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% NYG LAC: Punt
8 Q4 2:38 The Giants converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% NYG NYG: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Micah McFadden (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Rakeem Nunez-Roches (NYG NT), out · 0.1 pts
  • Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Khalil Mack (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Will Dissly (LAC TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Mekhi Becton (LAC G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Josh Harris (LAC LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 74% · Giants 26%

Final margin
Giants by 3
Luck in points
8.4 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 5.4
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 90% · Giants 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Chargers · Giants

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