luckadjusted

Week 4 2025 · September 25, 2025

Seahawks at Cardinals, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 23–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): J. Myers made 52-yard field goal, worth 26 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 23
Arizona Cardinals 20

September 25, 2025 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −1.5

Luck index +17 Seahawks about even · −17 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 8, Cardinals win 2.

  1. 1 SEA 33 ARI 7
  2. 2 SEA 41 ARI 20
  3. 3 SEA 37 ARI 20
  4. 4 SEA 23 ARI 10
  5. 5 SEA 23 ARI 13
  6. 6 SEA 23 ARI 16
  7. 7 SEA 35 ARI 31
  8. 8 SEA 31 ARI 29
  9. 9 SEA 16 ARI 20
  10. 10 SEA 20 ARI 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 83% of them, Cardinals 17%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+35.8%
Seahawks by 9–1622.4%
Seahawks by 1–824.2%
Level after regulation1.2%
Cardinals by 1–810.3%
Cardinals by 9–164.7%
Cardinals by 17+1.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Seahawks by 3, without the luck Seahawks by 4.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Myers, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. Ryland, 57 yds made · 59% expected
  • J. Myers, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 53 yds missed · 73% expected
  • J. Myers, 52 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 6 for 74 yards, Cardinals 7 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:10 Face Mask on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 15 yards +4% ARI +1.5 pts
Q1 6:21 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% SEA +0.6 pts
Q1 5:05 Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.3 pts
Q2 14:29 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (PJ Mustipher), 5 yards +3% SEA +0.9 pts
Q2 6:58 Taunting on the Seahawks (Kenneth Walker III), 15 yards +2% ARI +1.2 pts
Q2 1:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Budda Baker), 16 yards +4% SEA +4.0 pts
Q3 8:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 14 yards +2% ARI +1.1 pts
Q3 7:49 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +2% SEA +1.1 pts
Q4 14:22 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Jalen Thompson), 5 yards +1% SEA +1.3 pts
Q4 11:48 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Jaxon Smith-Njigba), 10 yards +1% ARI +1.1 pts
Q4 11:04 False Start on the Seahawks (Eric Saubert), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.5 pts
Q4 6:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 15 yards +1% ARI +0.7 pts
Q4 0:28 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Cardinals (Chad Ryland), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA 0.0 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:07 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% ARI SEA: Touchdown
2 Q2 8:32 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Cardinals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +22% SEA ARI: Punt
3 Q4 4:58 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% SEA SEA: Missed field goal
4 Q4 3:21 J. Myers missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 49 of 66 from 45+ before +9% ARI SEA: Field goal
5 Q4 3:01 The Cardinals converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +12% ARI ARI: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:00 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% ARI ARI: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:16 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +11% ARI ARI: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:04 J. Myers made 52-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 49 of 67 from 45+ before +26% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kelvin Beachum (ARI T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • James Conner (ARI RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Will Johnson (ARI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Jones (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • L.J. Collier (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 83% · Cardinals 17%

Final margin
Seahawks by 3
Luck in points
1.6 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 4.6
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 83% · Cardinals 17% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Seahawks · Cardinals

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