2025 season · final

Arizona Cardinals, 2025: game by game

The Cardinals went 3–14 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.1 wins. Luck cost them 3.1: the 3rd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–8.

Every game

How often the Cardinals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Saints	W 20–13	60%	+40
Week 2	vs Panthers	W 27–22	87%	+13
Week 3	@ 49ers	L 15–16	14%	−14
Week 4	vs Seahawks	L 20–23	17%	−17
Week 5	vs Titans	L 21–22	53%	−53
Week 6	@ Colts	L 27–31	17%	−17
Week 7	vs Packers	L 23–27	30%	−30
Week 9	@ Cowboys	W 27–17	61%	+39
Week 10	@ Seahawks	L 22–44	16%	−16
Week 11	vs 49ers	L 22–41	26%	−26
Week 12	vs Jaguars	L 24–27	40%	−40
Week 13	@ Buccaneers	L 17–20	93%	−93
Week 14	vs Rams	L 17–45	1%	−1
Week 15	@ Texans	L 20–40	20%	−20
Week 16	vs Falcons	L 19–26	61%	−61
Week 17	@ Bengals	L 14–37	4%	−4
Week 18	@ Rams	L 20–37	8%	−8

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +40 @ NO

Wk 2 +13 vs CAR

Wk 3 −14 @ SF

Wk 4 −17 vs SEA

Wk 5 −53 vs TEN

Wk 6 −17 @ IND

Wk 7 −30 vs GB

Wk 9 +39 @ DAL

Wk 10 −16 @ SEA

Wk 11 −26 vs SF

Wk 12 −40 vs JAX

Wk 13 −93 @ TB

Wk 14 −1 vs LA

Wk 15 −20 @ HOU

Wk 16 −61 vs ATL

Wk 17 −4 @ CIN

Wk 18 −8 @ LA

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Cardinals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Drops	+0.26	+9.8
Rest	+0.03	+1.4
3rd & 4th downs	−0.05	+1.3
Fumble bounces	−0.15	−9.4
Injuries	−0.65	−26.3
Kicks	−0.94	−14.2