luckadjusted

Week 6 2025 · October 12, 2025

Cardinals at Colts, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Cardinals 31–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 8 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: drops alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Colts were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:58 left): the Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 7, worth 41 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 27
Indianapolis Colts 31

October 12, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −8.5

Luck index +17 Colts about even · −17 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 2, Colts win 8.

  1. 1 ARI 33 IND 21
  2. 2 ARI 13 IND 10
  3. 3 ARI 27 IND 30
  4. 4 ARI 20 IND 24
  5. 5 ARI 30 IND 38
  6. 6 ARI 20 IND 31
  7. 7 ARI 6 IND 20
  8. 8 ARI 23 IND 41
  9. 9 ARI 20 IND 41
  10. 10 ARI 3 IND 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 17% of them, Colts 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+1.3%
Cardinals by 9–163.9%
Cardinals by 1–810.3%
Level after regulation1.3%
Colts by 1–824.6%
Colts by 9–1623.8%
Colts by 17+34.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.6 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 4, without the luck Cardinals by 2.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Badgley, 45 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. Ryland, 44 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 7 for 65 yards, Colts 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:01 False Start on the Cardinals (Greg Dortch), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.6 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Cardinals, 3 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.3 pts
Q2 14:12 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Colts (Chris Lammons), 15 yards +5% ARI +1.1 pts
Q2 5:23 Encroachment on the Colts (Samson Ebukam), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ARI +1.1 pts
Q2 4:03 Face Mask on the Cardinals (Zay Jones), 15 yards +6% IND +3.0 pts
Q2 0:36 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.2 pts
Q3 4:22 Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 15 yards +5% ARI +1.4 pts
Q4 13:12 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Colts (Michael Badgley), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI 0.0 pts
Q4 13:05 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% IND +1.2 pts
Q4 12:13 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 10 yards +6% IND +0.7 pts
Q4 8:08 Face Mask on the Cardinals (Zaven Collins), 15 yards +7% IND +1.6 pts
Q4 4:32 Face Mask on the Cardinals (Owen Pappoe), 12 yards +2% IND +1.1 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:37 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +9% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q3 4:44 The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% IND IND: Field goal
3 Q3 4:39 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedT. Warren dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 29 catchable balls before this +12% ARI IND: Field goal
4 Q3 4:36 M. Badgley made 45-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 14 of 30 from 45+ before +10% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:36 C. Ryland made 44-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him +12% ARI ARI: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 5:48 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:06 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% IND ARI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:58 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +41% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaylon Jones (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Spencer Shrader (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out, replaced by j.brissett · 4.2 pts
  • Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Christian Jones (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Darius Robinson (ARI DL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Blake Gillikin (ARI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • L.J. Collier (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Darius Robinson (ARI DT), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 37% · Colts 63%

Final margin
Colts by 4
Luck in points
6.6 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 17% · Colts 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Cardinals · Colts

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