luckadjusted

Week 6 2025 · October 9, 2025

Eagles at Giants, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Eagles 34–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

An off day for the Eagles: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:14 left): the Giants converted 3rd & 12, worth 13 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 17
New York Giants 34

October 9, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −7

Luck index +29 Giants lucky · −29 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 3, Giants win 7.

  1. 1 PHI 19 NYG 3
  2. 2 PHI 20 NYG 13
  3. 3 PHI 20 NYG 17
  4. 4 PHI 13 NYG 15
  5. 5 PHI 31 NYG 35
  6. 6 PHI 17 NYG 24
  7. 7 PHI 13 NYG 23
  8. 8 PHI 17 NYG 30
  9. 9 PHI 7 NYG 24
  10. 10 PHI 20 NYG 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Eagles

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%.

34 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained +0.09 +0.12 worse by 0.03
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed +0.25 +0.03 worse by 0.21
Giants offenseEPA per play gained +0.25 +0.03 better by 0.22
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed +0.09 +0.13 better by 0.04

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 29% of them, Giants 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+3.1%
Eagles by 9–167.7%
Eagles by 1–814.8%
Level after regulation4.1%
Giants by 1–826.9%
Giants by 9–1622.6%
Giants by 17+20.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.8 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 17, without the luck Giants by 8.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 4 for 46 yards, Giants 6 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Giants (Jamie Gillan), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI 0.0 pts
Q1 11:14 False Start on the Giants (Lil'Jordan Humphrey), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.6 pts
Q3 13:50 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Sydney Brown), 6 yards 0% NYG +0.4 pts
Q3 11:01 Face Mask on the Eagles (Byron Young), 15 yards +3% NYG +3.3 pts
Q3 10:34 Illegal Contact on the Eagles (Kelee Ringo), 5 yards +1% NYG +0.4 pts
Q3 3:12 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.8 pts
Q4 12:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Paulson Adebo), 25 yards +9% PHI +1.2 pts
Q4 10:40 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.7 pts
Q4 9:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Kelee Ringo), 20 yards +2% NYG +2.7 pts
Q4 5:05 Taunting on the Giants (Cam Skattebo), 15 yards 0% PHI +1.5 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:14 The Giants converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedFalse Start on the Giants (Lil'Jordan Humphrey), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 1579 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +13% NYG NYG: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:06 The Giants converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% NYG NYG: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:22 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:31 The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 5:39 The Giants converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% NYG NYG: Touchdown
6 Q2 2:46 The Giants converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% NYG NYG: Touchdown
7 Q3 7:10 A. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 14 drops on 349 catchable balls before this +5% NYG PHI: Punt
8 Q4 12:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Paulson Adebo), 25 yardsJudgment calls · 29 flags in 3566 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +9% PHI PHI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Darius Slayton (NYG WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Malik Nabers (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jalen Carter (PHI DT), out · 0.6 pts
  • Landon Dickerson (PHI G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Nolan Smith (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Charley Hughlett (PHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 13% · Giants 87%

Final margin
Giants by 17
Luck in points
8.8 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 8.2
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 29% · Giants 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Eagles · Giants

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