2025 season · final
Philadelphia Eagles, 2025: game by game
The Eagles went 11–6 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.5 wins. Luck added 4.5: the luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–4.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.
Every game
How often the Eagles win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Cowboys | W 24–20 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 2 | @ Chiefs | W 20–17 | 10% | +90 |
| Week 3 | vs Rams | W 33–26 | 13% | +87 |
| Week 4 | @ Buccaneers | W 31–25 | 25% | +75 |
| Week 5 | vs Broncos | L 17–21 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 6 | @ Giants | L 17–34 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 7 | @ Vikings | W 28–22 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 8 | vs Giants | W 38–20 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 10 | @ Packers | W 10–7 | 36% | +64 |
| Week 11 | vs Lions | W 16–9 | 12% | +88 |
| Week 12 | @ Cowboys | L 21–24 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 13 | vs Bears | L 15–24 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 14 | @ Chargers | L 19–22 | 49% | −49 |
| Week 15 | vs Raiders | W 31–0 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 16 | @ Commanders | W 29–18 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 17 | @ Bills | W 13–12 | 16% | +84 |
| Week 18 | vs Commanders | L 17–24 | 61% | −61 |
| Wild Card | vs 49ers | L 19–23 | 7% | −7 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Eagles’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +1.14 | −8.8 |
| Injuries | +0.46 | +17.9 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.37 | +8.4 |
| Drops | +0.17 | +9.9 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.04 | −1.6 |
| Rest | +0.03 | +0.8 |
| Judgment calls | −1.33 | −29.3 |