Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025
Lions at Eagles, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
The Eagles stole one. They beat the Lions 16–9, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Eagles.
The Eagles won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Eagles were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:18 left): the Lions were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 10 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 Detroit Lions | 9 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +88 Eagles very lucky · −88 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lions win 9, Eagles win 1.
- 1 DET 34 PHI 3
- 2 DET 41 PHI 17
- 3 DET 38 PHI 17
- 4 DET 27 PHI 10
- 5 DET 35 PHI 21
- 6 DET 34 PHI 23
- 7 DET 24 PHI 15
- 8 DET 26 PHI 20
- 9 DET 22 PHI 19
- 10 DET 13 PHI 21
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Eagles won on an off day
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
51 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions offenseEPA per play gained | −0.35 | +0.20 | worse by 0.55 |
| Lions defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.14 | +0.08 | better by 0.22 |
| Eagles offenseEPA per play gained | −0.14 | +0.13 | worse by 0.28 |
| Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.35 | +0.04 | better by 0.39 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lions win 88% of them, Eagles 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lions by 17+ | 48.6% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 21.7% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 17.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 7.5% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Elliott, 27 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Elliott, 34 yds made · 93% expected
- J. Elliott, 49 yds made · 69% expected
- J. Bates, 54 yds made · 59% expected
- Extra point missed · 70% expected
Penalties: Lions 5 for 48 yards, Eagles 9 for 78 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:06 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | +2% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q1 8:31 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Jeremiah Trotter Jr.), 10 yards | +2% DET +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:35 | Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PHI +0.4 pts |
| Q2 12:46 | Face Mask on the Eagles (Jeremiah Trotter Jr.), 15 yards | +4% DET +1.2 pts |
| Q2 5:12 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Lions (Jameson Williams), 15 yards | +4% PHI +1.2 pts |
| Q3 11:06 | False Start on the Eagles, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% DET +1.1 pts |
| Q3 10:37 | Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DET +0.4 pts |
| Q3 5:05 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Brian Branch), 15 yards | +4% PHI +1.2 pts |
| Q3 0:29 | Low Block on the Eagles (A.J. Brown), 15 yards | +3% DET +1.3 pts |
| Q4 14:17 | Defensive Holding on the Lions (Amik Robertson), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% PHI +1.0 pts |
| Q4 13:47 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | 0% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q4 6:25 | False Start on the Eagles (Darius Cooper), 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% DET +0.7 pts |
| Q4 1:51 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Rock Ya-Sin), 8 yards | +1% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q4 1:51 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DET +0.4 pts |
Lions penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:18 | The Lions were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +10% PHI | DET: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 15:00 | The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedD. Smith dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 357 catchable balls before this | +8% DET | PHI: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 13:07 | The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +9% PHI | DET: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 11:22 | The Lions were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +7% PHI | DET: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 3:01 | The Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 12:19 | The Lions were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedJ. Williams dropped a catchable passDrops · 13 drops on 141 catchable balls before this | +7% PHI | DET: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q3 5:14 | The Lions were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +8% PHI | DET: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 2:48 | The Lions converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +8% DET | DET: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Charley Hughlett (PHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Sam LaPorta (DET TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Kerby Joseph (DET S), out · 0.7 pts
- Terrion Arnold (DET CB), out · 0.7 pts
- D.J. Reed (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Christian Mahogany (DET OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lions 25% · Eagles 75%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 7
- Luck in points
- 6.4 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Lions 88% · Eagles 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Lions · 
Eagles
More from Week 11 2025
- Jets at Patriots NE 27–14 · replay 97% for the winner
- Commanders vs Dolphins MIA 16–13 · replay 53% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 30–27 · replay 59% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings CHI 19–17 · replay 80% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers PIT 34–12 · replay 75% for the winner
- Packers at Giants GB 27–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 16–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Chargers at Jaguars JAX 35–6 · replay 94% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Bills BUF 44–32 · replay 66% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams LA 21–19 · replay 48% for the winner
- 49ers at Cardinals SF 41–22 · replay 74% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns BAL 23–16 · replay 99% for the winner
- Chiefs at Broncos DEN 22–19 · replay 42% for the winner
- Cowboys at Raiders DAL 33–16 · replay 94% for the winner