luckadjusted

Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025

Bears at Vikings, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Vikings 19–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Vikings: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Bears they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Vikings were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): C. Santos made 48-yard field goal, worth 37 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 19
Minnesota Vikings 17

November 16, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3

Luck index +20 Bears about even · −20 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 8, Vikings win 2.

  1. 1 CHI 34 MIN 3
  2. 2 CHI 38 MIN 16
  3. 3 CHI 34 MIN 17
  4. 4 CHI 27 MIN 13
  5. 5 CHI 38 MIN 27
  6. 6 CHI 34 MIN 27
  7. 7 CHI 26 MIN 21
  8. 8 CHI 17 MIN 15
  9. 9 CHI 17 MIN 20
  10. 10 CHI 12 MIN 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Vikings

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Bears they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%.

36 points apart for the Vikings: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bears offenseEPA per play gained −0.02 +0.07 worse by 0.09
Bears defenseEPA per play allowed −0.02 +0.14 better by 0.15
Vikings offenseEPA per play gained −0.02 +0.08 worse by 0.09
Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed −0.02 +0.07 better by 0.09

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 80% of them, Vikings 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+33.8%
Bears by 9–1620.1%
Bears by 1–824.6%
Level after regulation2.0%
Vikings by 1–811.3%
Vikings by 9–165.8%
Vikings by 17+2.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 2, without the luck Vikings by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Santos, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. Santos, 54 yds made · 69% expected
  • C. Santos, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Santos, 45 yds missed · 83% expected
  • C. Santos, 48 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 6 for 40 yards, Vikings 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 14:56 Fair Catch Interference on the Bears (Josh Blackwell), 15 yards +1% MIN +1.7 pts
Q2 0:49 Defensive Holding on the Bears (Noah Sewell), 5 yards +3% MIN +0.6 pts
Q2 0:35 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.3 pts
Q3 10:31 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Jay Ward), 10 yards +1% CHI +0.6 pts
Q3 7:55 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.8 pts
Q3 6:37 Illegal Formation on the Bears (Rome Odunze), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% MIN +1.9 pts
Q4 4:27 Illegal Formation on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +1.1 pts
Q4 3:21 Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.5 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 15:00 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedL. Burden dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 17 catchable balls before this +7% MIN CHI: Punt
2 Q2 13:31 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedA. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 179 catchable balls before this +8% CHI MIN: Punt
3 Q4 8:13 C. Santos missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him, 43 of 60 from 45+ before +12% MIN CHI: Punt
4 Q4 7:32 J. Addison dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 177 catchable balls before this +7% CHI MIN: Punt
5 Q4 6:32 The Bears converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +7% CHI CHI: Punt
6 Q4 2:07 T. Hockenson dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 302 catchable balls before this +8% CHI MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:59 The Vikings converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:04 C. Santos made 48-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 43 of 61 from 45+ before +37% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carson Wentz (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.mccarthy · 2.6 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (MIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • T.J. Edwards (CHI LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Dayo Odeyingbo (CHI DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 64% · Vikings 36%

Final margin
Bears by 2
Luck in points
2.4 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Bears 80% · Vikings 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Bears · Vikings

More from Week 11 2025