luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · November 13, 2025–November 17

Week 11 2025: who deserved to win

3 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Eagles beat the Lions 16–9 in a game they win 12% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 11 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Panthers 30–27 @ Falcons 37% 59% Coin flip
Broncos 22–19 vs Chiefs 40% 42% Coin flip
Bears 19–17 @ Vikings 41% 80% Deserved
Jaguars 35–6 vs Chargers 41% 94% Deserved

Week 11 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Eagles W 16–9 vs Lions 12% +88
2 Broncos W 22–19 vs Chiefs 42% +58
3 Rams W 21–19 vs Seahawks 48% +52
4 Dolphins W 16–13 vs Commanders 53% +47
5 Panthers W 30–27 @ Falcons 59% +41
6 Bills W 44–32 vs Buccaneers 66% +34
7 49ers W 41–22 @ Cardinals 74% +26
8 Steelers W 34–12 vs Bengals 75% +25
9 Bears W 19–17 @ Vikings 80% +20
10 Packers W 27–20 @ Giants 83% +17
11 Texans W 16–13 @ Titans 90% +10
12 Jaguars W 35–6 vs Chargers 94% +6
13 Cowboys W 33–16 @ Raiders 94% +6
14 Patriots W 27–14 vs Jets 97% +3
15 Ravens W 23–16 @ Browns 99% +1
16 Browns L 16–23 vs Ravens 1% −1
17 Jets L 14–27 @ Patriots 3% −3
18 Chargers L 6–35 @ Jaguars 6% −6
19 Raiders L 16–33 vs Cowboys 6% −6
20 Titans L 13–16 vs Texans 10% −10
21 Giants L 20–27 vs Packers 17% −17
22 Vikings L 17–19 vs Bears 20% −20
23 Bengals L 12–34 @ Steelers 25% −25
24 Cardinals L 22–41 vs 49ers 26% −26
25 Buccaneers L 32–44 @ Bills 34% −34
26 Falcons L 27–30 vs Panthers 41% −41
27 Commanders L 13–16 @ Dolphins 47% −47
28 Seahawks L 19–21 @ Rams 52% −52
29 Chiefs L 19–22 @ Broncos 58% −58
30 Lions L 9–16 @ Eagles 88% −88