2025 season · final
Carolina Panthers, 2025: game by game
The Panthers went 8–9 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.6 wins. Luck added 1.4: the 10th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–3.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.5.
Every game
How often the Panthers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Jaguars | L 10–26 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 2 | @ Cardinals | L 22–27 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 3 | vs Falcons | W 30–0 | 50% | +50 |
| Week 4 | @ Patriots | L 13–42 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 5 | vs Dolphins | W 27–24 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 6 | vs Cowboys | W 30–27 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 7 | @ Jets | W 13–6 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 8 | vs Bills | L 9–40 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 9 | @ Packers | W 16–13 | 27% | +73 |
| Week 10 | vs Saints | L 7–17 | 31% | −31 |
| Week 11 | @ Falcons | W 30–27 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 12 | @ 49ers | L 9–20 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 13 | vs Rams | W 31–28 | 13% | +87 |
| Week 15 | @ Saints | L 17–20 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 16 | vs Buccaneers | W 23–20 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 17 | vs Seahawks | L 10–27 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 18 | @ Buccaneers | L 14–16 | 21% | −21 |
| Wild Card | vs Rams | L 31–34 | 46% | −46 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Panthers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.08 | −7.0 |
| Injuries | +0.07 | +2.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.03 | −12.9 |
| Judgment calls | −0.12 | +8.7 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.41 | −14.2 |